With the leadership of the United States in doubt, can its allies draw their own path? : NPR

Benland is the director of the Asia Pacific Program in Chatham House, an international research center in London. He is also the author of two books on Asian politics.

Even before President Trump returned to the White House earlier this year, talks with diplomatic and security officials throughout Europe and Asia revealed a deep contradiction. On the one hand, our allies fear the collapse of the international system, which has supported their stability in recent decades. On the other hand, they hesitate to invest in the structural changes needed to adapt to an uncertain world.

But this may change. American allies in Europe and India from the Pacific Ocean have shown increasingly prepared in recent months for coordination and cooperation through a wide range of common interests, from trade to the defense and alliance administration to China. As the medium democratic powers that are committed to opening trade and investment, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, and the most important European allies in Washington, participate in Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea, and the Indian and Pacific columns of the American coalition regime.

Foreign Ministers in these seven countries and Poland, another main European security player, meet Recently, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, admitting that “peace, security and flexibility in the Indian Pacific and Europe have become more intertwined.” They meet in a new coordination, and without the present of the United States even while they are on American soil, they promised to cooperate more closely in maritime security, cybersecurity, economic security, climate change, and the broader geopolitical uncertainty.

Regarding economic policy, these countries are looking to protect Beijing’s weapons to dominate emerging manufacturing and technologies. They are also looking for better defenses against the increasing protectionist pressure from the United States, which is due to President Trump’s return to the White House.

How can all allies organize among them?

Whether it is logical or not, it is logical for a superpower like America, its allies in Europe and India will suffer from the Pacific Ocean in a world where barriers continue to trade and invest in height. Large, advanced and open economies such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Australia will need to work more seriously in the coming years to defend the free flow of goods, services and investments.

One way is to do this in cooperation on the comprehensive and progressive agreement of the Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a regional trade agreement supported by Washington before President Trump withdrew in 2017. Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom of CPTPP, while South Korea is considering joining, and the European Union discussed the deepening of commercial ties with CPTPP.

Another field in which these countries can constitute a stronger alliance is technology. China and the United States take more assertive measures as they compete to drive in the main technologies of artificial intelligence and semi -conductors to electric vehicle batteries. None of Washington’s main allies have the financial weight or companies base to compete in itself. But they can collect knowledge and resources to try to ensure that they are not left behind. They can discuss how to prevent isolation in a world of extremist technological systems and standards.

Defense and intelligence, it is clear that there is no alternative to the role of the anchor that Washington plays. However, European allies, India and the Pacific are already expanding ties between themselves, rather than relying on the United States for leadership, communications and defense purchases. For example, instead of buying fighters from the United States, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, it is already working together to develop their next generation aircraft as part of the Global Combat Air. This may be the beginning of a wider batch of the exchange of defense and security between the allies in Europe, India and the Pacific.

Overcoming tensions and leadership without a leader

This transformation is not related to cutting ties with Washington. On the contrary, it comes to responding to changes in US local policy, and ensuring that American allies in Europe and India from the Pacific Ocean can make more feasible contributions in itself.

However, coordination between the middle forces in Europe and Asia without the rise of the American leadership will be a challenge.

Inside the European Union, France and Germany still collide with a joint combat program, the future combat air system, in doubt due to political quarrels and commercial competition. The United Kingdom is fixing fences with its European neighbors after Britain’s exit from the European Union, but standing outside the European Union makes defense and industrial cooperation difficult.

In the Indian Pacific Ocean, the historical tensions between Japan and South Korea have in the past their ability to cooperate with the United States and others’ allies.

It will require a vision beyond these tensions and smart leadership to find creative, flexible and cost -effective solutions. If the US allies in Europe and India from the Pacific Pacific fail to do more, they will not have resources or size to flourish in these unsure times.