I still have some relative confidence that the Gaza ceasefire agreement will make its way through the current periods of escalation. This is because the deal itself has very powerful stakeholders behind it, ones who can put enormous pressure on the warring parties if they so choose. But what we’re seeing now is every reason to expect a deal like this with Donald Trump to fail.
The first is attention. The best argument against continuing this deal was that Trump would get bored and lose interest. It is very clear that this has already happened. We heard his press secretary say just the other day that his main priority was building the new ballroom at the White House.