I read a mass email from Capitol Hill yesterday that basically predicted the extinction of the Democratic Party after what is expected to be a Supreme Court decision striking down the remainder of the Voting Rights Act. A less terrifying but still frightening version of this argument has emerged Evening piece published by Nate Cohen In The Times. Before we get into the partisan ramifications and vote counts, let’s first discuss what this means: ending political representation for African Americans in the states of the old Confederacy. Most, if not all, majority and minority districts disappear, and Republican state legislatures are free to draw districts that spread/dilution African American voters into safe Republican districts. Cohn thinks it’s plausible that Democrats could permanently (as anything can be permanent) lose 12 House seats. This is in addition to the strict restrictions occurring in a number of states across the country. The general scenario is one in which the House becomes a greater electoral challenge than the Senate, a challenge that can be won but only in a generational wave-style election.
Is this reasonable? Is this correct?