State Sen. Scott Wiener is a strategic and effective legislator who rarely lets emotion dictate his decisions — much like Nancy Pelosi, whose seat in Congress he would like to take.
It has been a widely known secret for years that Weiner wanted to run for federal office when or if Pelosi retired, but he also respected the elder stateswoman of California politics and made it equally clear that he would wait his turn in the brutal and narrow machine of San Francisco politics.
yet.
San Francisco standard The news broke on Thursday Weiner will run in the 2026 election, although he has not yet officially announced.
It’s news that shocked even those deep within the world of San Francisco politics, and ignited the inevitable news cycle about whether Pelosi (who was instrumental in removing President Biden from the 2024 race over age-related issues) is nominated herself. It also ensures a contentious race that will be watched nationally by both MAGA and the progressive left, both of whom oppose Weiner.
Oh drama.
Take it as you will, however A few months after hip replacement surgeryPelosi (literally) put her heels back on and raised big bucks for Proposition 50, the ballot initiative aimed at gerrymandering California’s voting maps to counter the Texas GOP’s gerrymandering fest.
Yes, she’s 85, but she’s no Joe. However, they are also no spring chicken. So the national debate over whether Democrats need not just new but younger candidates has officially arrived in the City of London, though Weiner remains practical and polite enough not to frame the matter that way.
That will leave it to reporters, who have hounded Pelosi for months, to announce whether she will seek another term, a question she has refused to answer directly. Instead, her team focused on the impending election for Proposition 50, and said any announcement about its future would have to wait after the votes were counted.
To be fair to Pelosi, she has done her best to fundraise and campaign for redistricting efforts, and its passage is necessary for Democrats to regain any power in the midterms.
If Proposition 50 fails, there will be no but miraculous path, except perhaps an unexpected blue wave, by which Democrats can regain control of the House. So November 4th is not an arbitrary date. It will determine whether there is any possibility of verifying Trump’s seizure of power and preserving democracy. Personally, I don’t blame Pelosi for getting into that fight.
Also to be fair to Fenner, his decision to go public now was probably driven more by money and political momentum than by Pelosi’s age.
That’s because Pelosi already has a rival — the ultra-wealthy progressive Saikat Chakrabarti, the budding millionaire who served as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s campaign manager during her first surprise congressional victory in 2018. Chakrabarti has long been an opponent of Pelosi, and recently announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a contrarian.
In 2019, before the House impeached Trump over his questionable actions regarding Ukraine, Chakrabarti tweeted“Pelosi claims we can’t focus on impeachment because it’s a distraction from kitchen table issues. But I challenge you to find voters who can name one thing House Democrats have done for their kitchen table this year. What is this legislative mastermind doing?”
Chakrabarti, who was born the year before Pelosi was first elected to Congress in 1987, self-funded his campaign with $700,000 and has the financial capacity to spend more. Weiner, in his low-profile campaign, has raised just over $1 million, which is not nearly enough. The primary will be in June and it will be expensive.
Even though we haven’t reached Halloween yet, Stroll the aisles of any department store I can tell you that Christmas is right around the corner, the season when fundraising becomes more difficult — putting pressure on Weiner to raise money as quickly as possible before the winter freeze.
Add to this pressure the fact that Chakrabarti has increasing political and popular skills. He was the technology architect behind a successful volunteer activation campaign for both AOC and Bernie Sanders.
An internal poll released a few months ago (and any internal poll should be viewed with suspicion) showed Chakrabarti attracting 34% of voters to Pelosi’s 47%. His numbers have increased as voters learn more about him — with some even comparing him to New York’s socialist child prodigy Zahran Mamdani, who is currently running for mayor against Andrew Cuomo.
The problem with that is that Weiner is not Cuomo. He’s a progressive, with a track record of getting things done, often progressive things.
For years I’ve watched him push ambitious agendas through the state House, including bills I would have bet against him.
Most recently, he wrote about the state’s ban on police officers, including ICE, wearing masks. Although the feds have said they will ignore the new law, which Newsom recently signed, and will almost certainly end up in court, it’s a message worth sending about secret policing in America.
During this period, Weiner also passed a controversial housing bill that would increase density around transportation hubs, and also spearheaded a bill to regulate artificial intelligence.
In the past, he has successfully forced insurance companies to cover mental health In the same way it covers physical health; I paid Major companies to disclose and its impact on climate; He was one of the main supporters of “YIMBY” policies. Which facilitates housing construction.
He has also passed several laws protecting immigrant and LGBTQ+ rights, making him a favorite target of the far right. He has received regular death threats for years, including… One of the anti-vaxxer Who was convicted of seven charges in 2022 after threatening Weiner and finding him in possession of weapons. Weiner doesn’t have the charisma of Pelosi, but he has the receipts for getting the job done and dealing with the vitriol of modern politics.
Unlike Chakrabarti, Weiner has also been part of the insular San Francisco community for decades, and has his own support base — though he is considered a moderate relative to Chakrabarti’s progressivism. This is where San Francisco gets wonderfully weird. Almost anywhere else, Weiner would be firmly behind. But some of his constituents view him as too developer-friendly for his housing policies and have criticized his past policies on expanding guardianship for people with mental illnesses.
However, a recent EMC poll conducted but not publicly released showed that 61% of likely primary voters had a favorable opinion of Weiner. That’s significantly more than the 21% who said the same about Chakrabarti or even the 21% who liked Pelosi’s daughter, Christine Pelosi, who has also been mentioned as a potential successor.
Which is all to say that Weiner is in a now-or-never moment. He has popularity but needs momentum and money. The Democratic Party is in chaos, and the old rules are out the window, even in San Francisco.
So it became a bit like waiting for Pelosi Waiting for Godota self-imposed state of oblivion that was more likely to lead to frustration than victory.