Republicans in the government are working to reshape federal spending through three main efforts, follow -up along the parallel tracks. It may seem to all of them the same story – and they are associated with each other – but each of them has their own goals, final dates and restrictions. Here, evidence to the three.
Voltage 1: Avoid closing
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Possible changes: The draft law will finance part of the budget – hundreds of billions of dollars – for the rest of the fiscal year.
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Delivery date: Saturday 12:01 am
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condition: The draft law passed the House of Representatives on Tuesday and heads to the Senate.
If Congress does not approve a bill to finance continuous government programs by the end of Friday, there may be a closure.
Congress is supposed to pass bills for spending laws for a year before the start of the fiscal year, through a process known as regular credits. This process often collapses, so Congress It passes frequently Spending bills are shorter every few months instead to maintain government financing. The latest “ongoing decision” this week ends, and a new one, which will finance the government during the end of the fiscal year on September 30, ends at the table.
The credits process deals with part of all federal spending – it is often estimated. This does not affect “mandatory” programs such as social security, which pay benefits on a type of automated pilot, based on a formula. The decision is also subject to a share in the Senate, which means that at least seven Democrats will need to vote in favor of it even if every Senate republic is supporting it.
The current bill of government often allows spending the same amount on most government agencies that they spend throughout the year, with some major exceptions, including discounts in programs that lawmakers allocated in their original areas, and an increase in military spending. Compared to the financing last year, it reduces the amount allowed by about $ 7 billion – about 0.1 percent of the annual government spending estimated at $ 7 trillion.
Witness 2: Passing the Trump agenda in a large invoice
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Possible changes: The trillion dollars in changes to both tax revenues and spending, over 10 years.
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Delivery date: October 1, or the process must start again.
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condition: The budget decision passed the house. The timing of the following steps is unclear.
The House of Representatives has adopted a budget plan for what the government should spend and raise during the next decade. This budget is the first part of a process that can help Republicans reduce taxes and reshape large government programs. Republicans chose this road, known as reconciliation, so that they could pass their policies without the need for any democratic voices in the Senate.
The reconciliation process still has many remaining steps to go. Republicans in the Senate will need to adopt a identical solution to the budget, and many have expressed reservations about the Parliament’s approach (the Senate approved a smaller budget plan). After that, both councils will have to write and pass legislation that implement discounts and increase in spending in the budget.
Depending on the design, the budget settlement often addresses the parts of the federal spending that are not part of the credit process. This includes mandatory programs such as medicare, medicaid, food assistance, student loans and agricultural aid that is automatically funded unless Congress has not changed its structure.
The budget adopted by the House of Representatives will also allow tax discounts of about $ 4.5 trillion over a decade, partially corresponding to about $ 2 trillion in spending discounts. It also includes a few increases in spending, for military security and borders. This mixture of deficit can increase by $ 3.4 trillion, including interest on federal debts.
Since the budget process affects a decade, the above numbers are 10 years changes. This is part of the reason that it is much larger than the numbers used to describe the continuous accuracy, which covers only about half a year of spending.
Voltage 3: Use the Elon Musk team to reduce the budget
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Possible changes: The declared goal is to reduce about 15 percent of the budget next year.
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Delivery date: That fiscal year ends in October 2027.
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condition: The discounts continue from the MUSK team, with the announcement of new demobilization operations and the cancellation of contracts this week.
Mr. Musk, billionaire businessman, is leading his own efforts to reduce government spending, and it is not clear how he will be able to intersect with Congress. He pledged to use a team called the Ministry of Governmental efficiency to reduce federal spending for $ 1 trillion in The next fiscal yearThe goal of an ambition will be difficult to achieve without legislation.
So far, Mr. Musk team has directed the agencies to extinguish workers, cancel government contracts, grants and rental contracts. Most of these changes affect the estimated part of the budget – the smaller part of government spending that Congress tries to address this week.
Mr. Musk and Congress seem to be clash. The current ongoing decision is often left by agencies funded by their current level, and does not take into account the changes made by Mr. Musk Group. But there was some discussion about the codification of some of Mr. Musk’s discounts using a process called cancellation.
The efforts made by his team mostly ignored the army, which constitutes more than half of the estimated spending.
Some group changes may also affect federal revenues. His team makes significant discounts for employees in the internal revenue service, which collects taxes and achieve tax fraud. Congress Budget Office He has estimated The smaller tax authority employees generally mean that less taxes are collected.
Note: Do not forget the debt limit
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Possible changes: Without legislation, the United States may fail to pay its obligations and neglect.
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Delivery date: At some point this summer.
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condition: The Treasury is already using “unusual measures” to prevent failure to pay for as long as possible.
With the high federal debts, Congress must periodically pass legislation that allows the Treasury Ministry to keep the bond versions. It is not clear when the country will run out of options to prevent the failure to pay, but many budget experts believe that it will be as soon as this summer.
If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, the country will begin to fail from its debts, which is likely to have negative and renewed consequences for the American economy. Payments can stop to the beneficiaries of social security, medical services providers and government workers.
The Republicans in the House of Representatives have put this increase in the borrowing authority in the large budget bill. But if the reconciliation process does not end in a timely manner, Congress may have to transfer an increase to the debt in another way.