In this writing, President Trump plans to impose a new tariff on imports from all over the world. We were told that the “Tahrir Day” tariff will continue 6 trillion dollars In federal revenue over the next decade, in addition to another trillion car tariffs. But the only real “liberation” is the Americans-the Americans-consumers and taxpayers-are liberated from more of our income income. Therefore, hold on to your wallet.
If you do not think that the liberation day is bad news for the overwhelming majority of us, first remember that American consumers, as always, are the ones who pay us definitions. All the Trump team collects from foreign imports, we will be transferred to us in the form of higher prices.
Then there is the fact that the administration is already preparing to control economic damage with Emergency aid For us farmers. The need for such aid is an implicit recognition that the president’s commercial policy – which is marketed as a tool for strengthening America – will lead to revenges on our commercial partners who will harm many American producers, including farmers who export agricultural rewards for this country to help feed the world.
For the paper on this devastating policy, the administration will explode another hole in the federal budget with rescue funds to compensate the victims.
How do I know? We were here before.
During the first period of Trump, his commercial war with China sparked the revenge definitions that cost American farmers in appreciation 27 billion dollars In lost agricultural exports. To reduce the strike on farmers, the administration has spent 23 billion dollars In the rescue payments through the US Department of Agriculture, at one estimate, farmers received 92 % of the customs tariff on Chinese goods that we paid through higher prices in the supermarket.
The administration is now preparing to restart with a higher and broader tariff, including allies such as Canada, Europe, Mexico and Japan.
As it turns out, American agriculture is one of the most exporting sectors in the economy. When the commercial partners take revenge, they target agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton and pork. Why? Because it is a political and economically effective sensitive.
Indeed, groups like national corn farmers ASSN. And American soybeans. Prepare to influence. As one of the last members said New York TimesFarmers do not want bulletins but, instead, “access to the free fair trade market.”
What they get instead is the uncertainty, the low prices of basic commodities and the very real possibility to close from the long -term markets, as global buyers resort to Brazil, Argentina and the European Union. Indeed, before the start of revenge, US Agriculture Minister Brock Rollins assured farmers to support the US Department of Agriculture while definitions. The rest of us will not be lucky.
The 198-2020 tariffs raised consumer prices for goods, such as washing machines, cars and electronics. According to economists in Federal Reserve Many universities, American consumers bear almost the full cost, while protected local industries have only modest benefits.
With a much wider set of tariffs on the table, low-income families who spend their largest income shares-which were badly harmed by the last inflation-are likely to suffer more than others. This is a dangerous suggestion in the wrestler economy already with constant cost pressures.
Below, where things are transmitted from damage to the catastrophic: If the administration follows each of the expensive new definitions and more rescue operations with the expansion of the scope of tax cuts simultaneously and the addition of new tax exemptions without discounts in the corresponding spending, the result will be a financial black hole.
It is true that Elon Musk and his government ministry reduce spending and that the administration has retracted many of the costly regulations caused by the Biden administration. He also wants to liberate the energy sector and generate more energy abundance. But it will take a long time to achieve the benefits of these efforts, if they are ever checking. After all, many of these changes require congressional, and the late conference has lost.
Trump’s tariff strategy is worse than gambling. It is a certain loser. Experience proves that the policies that all economic nationalism stimulates and do not earn. Long -term damage details should still be detected. However, in the short term, we know the fact that the liberation day will harm farmers, the burden of consumers and increase the budget deficit-all with a threat in the name of “America first”.
What America really needs is open markets, financial responsibility and stable commercial relations – not restarting and expanding the last trade war.
Veronic de Roger He is an older research colleague at the MERCATUS Center at George Mason University. This article was produced in cooperation with the Creators Syndicate.