Donald Trump’s surprise successes in traditionally nonwhite Democratic districts in New Jersey in 2024 have added an unpredictable variable to this year’s governor’s race.
For Republican Jack Ciattarelli, they offer the tantalizing prospect of new support that eluded him when he narrowly lost his last governor’s race in 2021 — but also the prospect of him chasing fool’s gold if Trump’s gains turn out to be unique to him and not transferable to other Republicans.
For Democrat Mikie Sherrill, there is hope that a return to the previous base for Democratic candidates will halt further erosion of the state’s blue — but there is also concern that there may be an additional, deeper challenge related to turnout.
While Trump lost the state to Kamala Harris last year, his 6-point margin of defeat represented a massive step forward from the 16-point defeat he suffered in 2020. This marked his second-largest statewide improvement anywhere in the country.
This has been particularly linked to the significant growth in support for Trump among Hispanic voters. Overall, 22% of New Jersey’s adult population is Hispanic, and there are 29 municipalities in the state that are majority Hispanic. Most of them were typically core Democratic districts, but in 2024 Trump narrowed his margin of defeat to levels practically unheard of for a Republican and flipped several of them completely.
At 36 points, Trump’s net improvement in Perth Amboy represents his largest single jump of any New Jersey municipality with at least 1,000 residents. Patterson and Pasek came in second and third place, respectively. Overall, Trump lost New Jersey’s majority Latino communities by 20 points last year, down from 46 points in 2020.
An additional 82 municipalities, while not majority-Hispanic, are majority non-white. In these communities, which tend to have large Black or Asian American populations (or both), Trump also made big strides last year, but not on the same scale: He cut the deficit by 42 points in 2020 to 29 points.
When he ran against Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, Ciattarelli was eliminated in heavily populated non-white areas. To understand how much statewide gains would change Trump’s candidacy, consider that his overall statewide loss to Murphy was by 3.2 points, or 84,286 votes. But if he had won Trump’s share of the vote in every non-white majority municipality, that would have reduced Murphy’s margin to 0.3 points, or just over 8,000 votes.
Of course, for Schiattarelli, these gains are easier said than done. Trump has the support of many first-time voters or first-time voters, people who tend to participate only in presidential races. There have been only a few nationally significant elections so far in 2025, but there are some signs that the energy that boosted Trump in nonwhite areas has disappeared relative to the rest of his party.
Even in 2024, with his name at the top of the ballot, nonwhite support for Trump did not automatically correlate with his fellow GOP candidates. For example, Trump won New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District, which has a 43% Hispanic population, even as a Democrat won his open House seat.
Chiattarelli is certainly pushing for progress, and it is essential for him to make tangible progress. This is due to the obstacle that Trump poses to his candidacy elsewhere in the state, especially the affluent, majority-white suburbs. These are the places that most strongly rejected Trump, but Chiattarelli did much better four years ago. Trump, of course, was a former president at the time, but now that he’s back in the White House, Ciattarelli may have trouble building on his success in 2021.
Densely populated Hudson County, which is located near Jersey City and contains a cluster of small and mid-sized cities across from New York City, looms as a major battleground. More than 40% of its population is Hispanic, and in three of its municipalities (Union City, Western New York and North Bergen), Hispanics make up more than 70% of the population. Trump lost Hudson by 28 points last year, down from 46 points in 2020. Ciattarelli lost him by 48 points.
In Hudson, powerful machines are a staple of the political culture. While the main county Democratic organization and The most powerful domestic machine Both directly support Sherrill, and dissident forces see an opportunity to infiltrate Trump and have done so They allied themselves with Ciattarellisetting the stage for a fascinating mobilization war on Election Day.
This presents a challenge for Sherrill and Democrats. Beyond reaffirming their party’s traditional advantage in non-white New Jersey, there is also the issue of turnout levels. It’s one of the main reasons why Ciattarelli has been able to instill terror in Murphy in 2021.
New Jersey gubernatorial elections always attract far fewer votes than presidential elections. But the landing is uneven. Overall, turnout in the 2021 gubernatorial race was 57% of what it was in the presidential contest the previous year. But it was much lower than in non-white areas. Of the 20 largest municipal turnout declines in the 2021 election, all but one came from an overwhelmingly nonwhite community.
This pattern has continued in almost all non-white majority communities. So, while Murphy demonstrated the kinds of margins Democrats are accustomed to in these places, the effect has been watered down. In fact, if turnout rates had been equalized — that is, if every municipality in the state had turned out at the same 57% level compared to 2020 — Murphy’s 3.2-point win would have swelled to a more comfortable 6.4 points.
It’s the double whammy of Sherrill’s dreams: thwarting Ciattarelli’s bid for new nonwhite votes, then burying him in a torrent of overwhelming voter turnout. Of course, just as with Chiattarelli’s hopes of replicating Trump’s gains, that is much easier said than done.