All the volatility will go into this to some degree – like how much you can take advantage of these conditions that we tend to see and, you know, how unpopular Trump actually is and so on. But Trump is unpopular in Virginia. This continued to be the case. And so I think that’s going to make it very difficult for Earl Sears.
Furthermore, Spanberger fundraised admirably, doing all the things she needed to do to put herself in a position to win. There has been talk that Earl Sears is not a particularly great candidate in terms of her work on the campaign trail. And you know, again, how important are these things?
I don’t want to overstate it, but I think that in this situation where you need to change some fundamental dynamics in the electoral environment, you have to be a particularly special candidate, or you need your opponent to do a bunch of things wrong. And that hasn’t really worked out for Earl Sears at this point.
bacon: So, let me move over here. I think just watching this from afar, my impression was that the Democrats had a strong candidate and the Republicans had a weak candidate. But if the margin is six or eight, it’s kind of – I think if Youngkin was running against Spanberger, Spanberger would be ahead by four, we think.
Because what are we looking at here? Does it feel like Virginia is leaning a little left?
Skelly: Yes, it’s interesting. Youngkin, in the poll of this race that asked about his approval or favorability, tended to be somewhat above water — in the net positive territory — even while Trump had a net negative, uh, on approval or favorability.
So, in that sense, I think Yongqin will definitely have a chance. I mean, I think a Spanberger-Youngkin race would have been a really impressive contest. That would have been something.
Meanwhile, Spanberger may not have decided to run. Maybe she was saying, well, I’m going to spend time in my congressional district…
bacon: In part, he’s the incumbent, so that’s not a fair question.
Like, I think – yeah, I think – is Spanberger better than the general Democrat, is that what I’m trying to ask? Let me ask you this way.
Skelly: Yes. And I, I think, I think maybe – I mean, I think there’s a good chance that she will – I mean, she’s at the top of the list and would probably win by a bigger margin if the Democrats win the lieutenant governor’s race.
Then we can talk about the district attorney race for a minute if you want. Yes, because this is actually the most interesting contest right now in Virginia. Ah, but Spanberger – all signs point to her coming out on top in terms of her margin of victory.
Ghazala Hashmi, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor, has a lead of about four percentage points in our polling average. Various polls showed her leading by either fairly close to three percentage points, or perhaps as much ahead as Spanberger with some of these polls showing Spanberger ahead by 10 or so.
So I think the thing to remember with Virginia, is that in recent elections — basically since 2009 — you’ve always seen those three statewide races, those three statewide office races in Virginia, and the results have generally been very close.
So, if Spanberger wins by 10 at the top of the ticket, I would expect Hashemi not to be too far behind, for example. Now, I probably didn’t expect Jay Jones to be this far out, who is the Democratic nominee for Attorney General, running against him – now, other incumbents in Virginia can seek re-election, which is a little confusing – but current Attorney General Jason Miyares, a Republican.
Here he was seeking re-election, and perhaps because he was incumbent and was outpacing Jones, he was probably always going to run stronger than any of the other Republicans on the ticket.
However, because of the texting scandal that Jay Jones was in – he had some other things as well – but in particular, the revelation that he had this series of texts and conversations in 2022 where he – I mean, it was virtual, but nonetheless – spoke very publicly in this conversation with the Republican state legislator. Not the most brilliant move on his part, by the way.
I mean, besides content, what do you do, my friend? Very stupid. He texts about a hypothesis where he shoots and kills the then-Republican speaker of the state House of Delegates. I mean, just, you know, kind of stuff is really off limits. Just not very frustrating.
And at this very moment, clearly in the wake of the assassination of Charlie Kirk, political violence is at the forefront of people’s minds as a concern. And I think having all of this coming to light at this moment was particularly bad for Jones politically — and somewhat good for Miyares.
In the aftermath, we saw Miyares lead in the polls in this race. Is it enough for him to win? We’ll see. I think there’s definitely a path for Jones to have a favorable environment for Democrats. If, you know, Spanberger wins by nine or 10 points at the top of the ticket, I could see Jones winning by a point or two. It could definitely happen. There’s not enough ticket splitting in this day and age for Miyares to be able to pull it off.
But if it were a Spanberger environment of seven or six, Miyares might hang on, pull through, and get a split-ticket result — something that hasn’t happened in Virginia for the three statewide races since 2005.
So the district attorney race is actually the race that I think people are watching most closely because of the Jones texting scandal and the opportunity that that has created for Miyares.
bacon: Let me conclude by talking about redistricting in Virginia, as the Democratic-controlled Virginia Legislature has Some early steps have been taken, perhaps to pursue or use referendums as areas to be manipulated. Somehow, Virginia’s current delegation consists of six Democrats and five Republicans. They’re looking at the possibility of achieving that, uh, basically nine to two, or eight to three.
But what I want to ask you about is the bigger picture. I’m having a hard time knowing where we are, because I don’t think I’ve seen a good analysis of where we are overall. In a normal environment — Trump’s approval is in the low 40s — I think Democrats would be the favorite to win the House.
Has it changed enough in redistricting where we can’t say that anymore? Are Republicans the nominees? Or do we have a good idea of how many seats Republicans have won through redistricting right now, or how much of an advantage they have gained through redistricting?
Skelly: So, the two big stories now are California and Texas. They might almost call it off — assuming California voters seem likely to approve Proposition 50. If they do, Democrats will get the map they want, and that will put them in a position to undo the gains Republicans will make in Texas.
Four, five seats, basically. And from there, you know, Missouri, they’ll need to see if that map is going to be stopped by a referendum campaign, which is a possibility as well. I would say, at this particular moment, Republicans have put themselves in a position to get a little bit more. It appears that Indiana may also seek redistricting.
North Carolina just made a move that would give them a seat, as Republicans would have one seat there. So, at this point, I think Republicans are a little ahead in terms of the net gains they can get from this process. However, I do not think this is enough at this stage to ensure their continued control of the House of Representatives.
You know, if you think about where things stand right now, based on the current makeup of the counties, I think roughly 20 counties would automatically be in the conversation as in play for Democrats to target. And this is like a conservative estimate – where the estimate might seem too far in one direction, but maybe, whatever it is, the ideal conditions come along for it, you know, in 2018, Democrats flipped their seat in Oklahoma City. Yes, did you know?
For example, that was a little bit further than I think people expected to happen, even in a pro-democracy environment.
But if you think about about 20 seats, they either leaned a little bit to the left of the 2024 presidential election in the country, but the Republicans held on to it — so, like, Harris got it, but by a little less than the overall margin — or, sorry, Trump won it, but by a little less than his national margin of a point and a half, or Trump got it by a narrow margin and was just a hair to the right of the country.
These are the types of seats that will be played in an environment where I expect Democrats, in terms of the overall environment, to have at least some advantage. We don’t know what that advantage will be yet, but at least some advantage, just as Republicans had at least a small advantage in 2022.
The case may not have been as big as we expected, but there were a lot of things that went into this – with the Supreme Court and the ruling related to it. Roe v. Wade– I think this has changed the balance of where that electoral environment was. But Republicans still have at least something, a small advantage in the overall political environment in 2022.
So, if Democrats have a small — at least a small — political advantage in the environment in 2026, I would expect Democrats to pick up at least some of those seats. They only need three. Now, obviously that’s going to change as redistricting calculations merge or whatever, but if you’re talking about a situation where Democrats might be able to win 15 to 20 seats, I think you’re going to need to change a lot more to ensure Republicans have a chance to hold on.
That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, because it certainly could. Especially with all this conversation about the Voting Rights Act, and the Court making decisions about that. If you make a decision about this, it could really open the door to a much wider range of changes.
Berry Bacon: Well, interesting. I think we’ll wrap up there. That’s good, because I think that’s where I’m looking, and that’s the next thing. If they rewrite the Voting Rights Act, we’re talking about a lot of seats. Okay. That’s it, that’s a good thing. And so, Jeffrey SkellyThanks for joining me.
Skelly: Hey, Perry. Thank you so much for having me. It’s good to see you.