TIt is the United Kingdom Reported decision Restricting intelligence sharing with the Pentagon about suspected drug traffickers’ boats in the Caribbean is a modest but symbolic act of resistance to Donald Trump’s campaign. Imperial Renaissance. Britain is said to have objected to repeated and deadly US air strikes on alleged smugglers off the coast of Venezuela – which have been widely condemned as unlawful extrajudicial killings amounting to murder.
The strikes appear to herald direct US attacks on Venezuela itself. Trump does not hide his desire to overthrow the ostensibly leftist authoritarian regime of Nicolas Maduro. Most Venezuelans support this goal, but not the means. Regime change imposed by a foreign power by force is contrary to international law, unless authorized by the United Nations or done in self-defense as a last resort. Legal or not, it never ends well.
The United States lacks a convincing justification for war, despite Trump’s fictional portrayal of Maduro and Latin American gang leaders as terrorists. “Drug terrorists” With those who believe that the United States is at war. But Trump doesn’t care. He believes that he and his country are above the law, and that might makes right. Call it by its name: this is exactly the kind of reckless royal imperialism against which the New World colonists rebelled.
The territorial expansionism of the second Trump administration is the latest, most striking manifestation of the new era of statelessness that has taken hold around the world. The concept of a common rulebook and joint action to address common global problems has been disdained. In Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has pushed nationwide lawlessness to new extremes – and no one seems able or willing to stop him.
Two rapidly developing conflicts may soon highlight the risks. The first is the expected US attack on Venezuela, which Trump, no less arrogant than any 19th-century empire builder, could immediately provoke. The other reason is the possibility of reigniting the unfinished war between Israel and Iran this summer, along with a renewed Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon – conflagrations that could be much worse this time.
Trump, as usual, has no plan for Venezuela, and is not thinking about “the next day.” As George W. Bush did in Iraq in 2003, he seems to believe that functioning democracy will magically materialize in Caracas after the coup. In any case, he does not value representative government per se – Nor the security and prosperity of Venezuelans. The most important is the country’s oil, gas and minerals, and wins easily.
A questionable precedent that has been talked about in Washington is the 1989 US invasion that toppled Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega – also accused of drug trafficking. Trump should be careful. The “just cause” process was not clear. Several hundred civilians and some American troops were killed. Venezuela is a much larger country, and less easy to subjugate.
I covered the Panama crisis live for The Guardian. Many things went wrong with piranhas – Noriega’s name for the invaders – and the same mistakes could happen again. As always, it’s political. In 1989, newly elected George H.W. Bush needed to achieve victory in his signature “War on Drugs” presidential campaign. Noriega, a former CIA informant, knew as much. Bush, the former director of the CIA, wanted to silence him. Demonizing Maduro helps Trump claim that he, too, is taking on the drug lords. Limited military operations in Venezuela could distract attention from his skeleton in the closet: Jeffrey Epstein.
The problems of statelessness in the Middle East revolve mainly around Israel and Iran. Reluctantly forced into a ceasefire in Gaza (which it failed to respect), Benjamin Netanyahu’s violence-addicted, peace-hating regime seeks new goals. Record numbers often go unverified, with impunity Attacks by Jewish settlers Regarding the West Bank, Palestinians remember, particularly with regard to food and water supplies, Israeli acts of genocide in Gaza.
Israel is bombing southern Lebanon again as well, claiming that the Lebanese army failed to disarm Hezbollah after a truce last year and that Iranian-backed fighters are regrouping. “The result of this reality is the increasing possibility that at some point over the coming weeks, Israeli attacks on Lebanon will escalate into full-scale war again.” Haaretz newspaper Commentator Amir Tibon warned.
The resumption of direct war between Israel and Iran is the greatest concern. Trump claimed in June that Iran’s nuclear facilities were as well “obliterated”. He lied. Interestingly, he and Netanyahu have since threatened another strike. Analysts point out that another Israeli attack is inevitable, given continuing doubts about an Iranian attack Nuclear capabilitiesThe collapse of UN negotiations and inspections, and the re-imposition of tougher sanctions.
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It is in political disarray, plagued by economic crises and social unrest, and abandoned by key allies such as Syria Leader Trump met last weekA weak Iran represents a tempting target for Netanyahu, who insists that it still poses an existential threat. But their weakness may make Tehran’s mullahs more dangerous. Iran is reportedly building thousands of missiles. If you are attacked, you may respond more forcefully next time.
A repeat bout of unprovoked, US-backed Israeli aggression would serve as yet another example of the state’s extreme chaos. But who will stop him? Not the United Nations. Not international courts. Neither frightened Europe, nor Arab countries that appease Trump. A similar unfortunate odyssey of impotence, apathy, and helplessness could unfold if, say, China invades Taiwan. Or if Russia invaded MoldovaOr even NATO member Estonia.
This is the world as it is now. The country’s rampant lawlessness finds ultimate expression in an accelerating global nuclear arms race unconstrained by arms control treaties or common sense. Trump resumes nuclear testing; Putin follows suit. Xi Jinping boasts of China’s atomic arsenal. Netanyahu hides Israel. Indian and Pakistani leaders threaten mutual destruction. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is building nuclear weapons like there is no tomorrow.
Which, at this rate, there may not be. They are all rogue states now. As we mentioned previously: these people could kill us all.