There are three prominent elections focusing on political observers this year – New Jersey Governor, New York mayor and Virginia ruler. Traditional wisdom believes that the three are expected to vote for the Democrats – which means that Virginia will be a party few.
There are also legislative and local elections in these areas. Democrats are expected to hold a majority.
Here is my last update for each of these main races:
New Jersey Governor
In New Jersey, the ruler’s democratic candidate is a member of Congress Mickey Sherrill, and the Republican candidate is Jacques Seatarili. Although CW claims that this should be an easy victory for Democrats, I have made some doubts what I think is just party propaganda. For one, Donald Trump Cut Its margin in New Jersey from a loss of 16 points in 2020 to a loss of 6 points in 2024, which is a 10 -point swing towards Republicans. For another, in New Jersey, it is very difficult for one party to win three consecutive periods of the ruler. The last time this happened was in 1961, when Democrat Richard Hughes won at 50.3 % -48.7 % from the Republic James Mitchell, the former US Labor Minister. Mitchell It might be LosR because:
The Mitchell campaign suffered a severe setback in September when the candidate broke his leg and took him out of the campaign for several weeks to recover after surgery; Complete the campaign on crutches. In the days before TV and social media, retail campaigns had a major impact on the elections.
This normal tide usually occurs against the majority party because in the conservative races, after a certain number of years, the majority party begins to “possess” state problems. We may see this again in New Jersey, when it comes to electrical bills, which Three times This summer, and for the increase in the price of health and insurance on cars. And with the endless height in taxes. According to one poll, Ciattarelli He carries Leader’s leadership with the public who is likely to reduce the candidate from taxes. (Duh)
The latest polling appears in the upcoming New Jersey Democratic. Stimsight Research Poll He appears Sherril Up, 48 % -42 %, among potential voters. Virley Dickenson University He has Sherrill leads 45 % -37 % among potential voters. A2 Insights poll He has Sherrill reaches 51 % to 45 % among potential voters.
Campaign financing To a large extent:
the The law enforcement committee in New Jersey for elections He distributes money matching to qualified candidates as part of a program that started in 1974 … it appears to be a close race, at least in terms of collecting donations: the members of the committee informed for the month of July that Republican candidate Jacques Seatarley received a total of 2,952,879 dollars, more than $ 2.93.
It is important to realize that the Democrats are concerned about this race, because the National Democratic Committee (DNC) Declare Initial investment of $ 1.5 million in the race, which is one of the largest investments and the oldest investments he made to the Democrats in New Jersey during the election session outside the year.
New York mayor
In New York, unlike my first predictions, the radical and socialist Islamist Zahran Mamdani won a major turmoil in the preliminary elections for Democrats against the former New York ruler, Andrew Como. This discomfort occurred due to the incompetence of Como, and some Shanegan shadows by local government members, socialist and leftist organizations, and Islamic Groups.
The current CW is that Mamdani is now a cuomo, who runs as an independent mayor, on the current mayor Eric Adams, who is run by the last independent, on the Republican Cortis Salwa, and on another independent. This CW appears to come from an emphasis on the Zenith poll Show Mamdani by 50 %, which is much more than 22 % for Cuomo, 13 % for Sliwa, and 7 % for Adams. It also shows that Mamdani leads the Jewish vote (NYT further Trying To add to this silly suit). The Zenith poll is supposed to be “independent”, but in reality Come From the adviser of Mamdani and suspects in left -wing polls.
Another last poll shows a more competitive race, with Mamdani It ranges In support of a decrease from 26 % to 41 %. Moreover, this list includes data for the progress poll, which is the same left and always Suspected.
There is no doubt that Mamdani still has an advantage in the race, in a city dominated by Democrats. However, the interesting thing is that its biggest advantage is likely because we have a copy of the prisoner’s dilemma that occurs. The prisoner’s dilemma He is A paradox in decision analysis, where individuals who behave in their own interest do not produce the perfect result. Here, both independents, Como and Adams, and the Republic, are all in the race, because they know that they are each of them Ownership An excellent opportunity to increase their proportions to the maximum extent against such a radical and socialist Islam. Each of Adams and Komo can present an argument that each of them can win the race if the other candidates leave. However, because all of them refuse to leak, this makes Mamdani wins.
Mamdani may be The edge of money as well; However, it is unclear how third -party groups will generally abandon.
Virginia ruler
In Virginia, the Commonwealth will get its first ruler, either the former members of Congress, Abyel Spanberger, or the ruling ruler, Winsome Earle -sears. Spanberger is very preferred to win this race, according to CW. Unfortunately, I must agree.
Average RCP He appears Spanberger with 46 % feature to Earle-Sears by 38.5 %, with Spanberger Driving In each poll. Spanberger also has an advantage in collecting donations – SPANBERGER collected more than 27 million dollars To date, with more than $ 15 million at hand, while Earle-Sears antiquities More than 11 million dollars and He has Nearly $ 5 million is at hand.
With the distribution of the previous history of Verginia that the current president’s party (almost) loses the colloquial elections of the ruler-with the exception of 2013 when Democrats greatly outperform the Republican Party and the race was filled through its independent support for conservatism-and with the fact that the Northern Virginia is one of the few areas in the country where federal work cramps. Ownership Really painful, Earl Serx is still floundering in its campaign (and MSM is doing its best Promoted Republican Party torment and depression). To win, you are supposed to really need the Earle-SEARS to find a good wedge problem. she Try The “tax ax” suggestion; But Spanberger to reject To give up the case.
Time runs out. Unless the Earle-SEARS can seize a prominent problem, it may continue to be “The top of the creek without the glory“
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