CNN
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Senator Arizona Kirsten decided to get rid of the political world on Friday by becoming independent. The former Democrat still exceeds the party in the Senate, so the Democratic Assembly still has 51 members. Now, instead of 49 Democrats and independent in their ranks, there are 48 democratic and three independents.
But this simple mathematics hides a more mysterious image of Democrats, especially the same. Cinema interests are not necessarily the interests of the Democrats in the next Congress, and the Senate map 2024 has become more complicated for Democrats who have a cinematic decision.
In order to be clear, Cinema has always been a thorn in the Democrats team during her time in Congress. Over the past two years, Democrats have always been sure that any draft law or nomination was supported by Sinema to have any opportunity to pass. These are mathematics when you only have 50 seats in the Senate in a 100 -seat room. Many bills and nominations It has never been voted Without supporting cinema and Manchin.
From 2013 (the first cinema period in Congress) to 2020, Sinema She voted against her party More than any other member of Congress. With the party, about 69 % of the time remained on the sounds, with a voter of at least half of the Democrats differently differently than half of the Republicans. The ordinary democratic voice with their party is about 90 % of the time on these voices.
It is completely possible that the Sinema percentage to adhere to the party now will decrease after it has become independent. Consider the example of previous Senator Joe Lieberman. Democrat has long won his re -election as a third -party candidate in 2006, after he lost the democratic primary of the left competitor (the governor of Kontecticut to some extent, Nid Lamont)
For the Mediterranean Democrat in the Senate, Lieberman voted with the party 10 points less than time after he became independent than he was in his last term as a democracy. If this happens with Sinema, you will become more conservative than Mancin’s atmosphere in West Virginia (the most conservative member of the Democratic Assembly).
This will be logical because the incentive structure is now completely different from Sinema. Before the 2024 re -election campaign, you no longer have to worry about winning the democratic preliminary elections. You should worry about building an alliance of Democrats, independents and Republicans. This is much more difficult if you look at very liberal.
In fact, the great reason has become an independent cinema because it was very difficult to win the democratic introductory elections. Classification of its approval between Democrats in Arizona in Fall 2022 CES I stood by a survey of only 25 %. A number of Democrats (For example, Representative Robin Galigo and Prosecutor Greg Stanton were already lining up to challenge her in the preliminary elections.
The question now is whether a cinematic decision to become independent will annihilate some of these Democrats from running. The idea is that Sinema is still infiltrating the Democrats, and Democrats will not want to divide democratic vote in general elections that allow the Republican to win a purple state like Arizona.
It is an interesting bet of cinema. After all, the Democrats usually do not run a candidate against independent Senator Bernie Sanders in Fairmont. Democrats who pass against independent Senator Angus King in Main Mine’s Al -Mares did not gain in the recent elections. Do not forget that Lieberman mentioned above won as a third -party candidate.
The structure of electoral mathematics was completely different in these circumstances. Sanders will not attract a left -wing democratic competitor because he is already progressing. Lieberman announced his candidacy at the third party after the introductory elections, so the Republicans had no time to find a well -known competitor. Republicans also knew that Lieberman, who was an enthusiastic supporter of the Iraq war, may have been the best that they could hope for in the deep democratic state of Contect.
This leaves the example of the king. The king, like Sinema, is a mild of a deep or deep blue condition. There is only one problem for Sinema in this measurement: KINT is famous. He had previously won the ruler twice as an independent and had always had high -level interests.
Sinema is not common at all. the CES poll If its approval classification was less than its classification with the Democrats, the independents and the Republicans in Arizona. Cinema’s total approval of 25 % to the rejection rate of 58 %. Another vote is not a terrible cinema, but the average of everything was more popular than popular.
In other words, perhaps the current numbers of Sinema will not scare many competitors from the democratic or Republican side. In addition, there is no reason for the Democrats who give up the earth to a cinema because it will prevent the Republic from winning. It is not clear at all that Sinema can win as an independent.
What a cinema step did is that it made electoral mathematics more complicated in Arizona and thus nationally. The presence of two people in the race will probably go to the Democratic Party that makes it difficult for Democrats to win.
One of the potentially disturbing examples of the Democrats in the state of Purple (at least at the time) was the 2010 Senate Race. Then the Republican Governor Charlie Christ decided to run as an independent after it became clear that he would not overcome the most conservative Republican Marco Rubio in the Republican preliminary elections. Christ, who said he would gather with the Democrats, divided the democratic vote with then MP Kindrik Mick and Rubio, won the victory.
I would like to point out that Democrats definitely have a chance. For example, the Senate race in Alaska in 1968 Democrats (Mike Graphil, then Senator Ernst as books). The stones in the state carried by Republican Richard Nixon also won a few points.
In 2024, Republicans in Arizona can nominate an extremist candidate. They lost each major state race in 2022 due to what they nominated.
Do not refuse to win a cinema, as Harry Bird did in 1970 Virginia Senate elections When both parties nominated the candidates. Perhaps voters will love the new independent registration for Sinema.
Sinema can find herself out when running in the general elections without a major party that supports her as Grunes did in 1968 or then Senator Jacob Javits in the Senate in New York in 1980.
We just don’t know.
However, the Democrats already have a difficult map heading to 2024. Based on whether the Democrats win the presidency (and they have a deputy prime minister who can break the relations of the Senate), they can lose zero for one seats in the Senate and maintain the majority.
The vast majority, 23 of 34, Senate members for his re -election in 2024 wheat with Democrats. An abnormal large number (7) Republican states Donald Trump won at least once. This includes Arizona.
With the Sinema break from the Democratic Party, the road, if there is nothing else, bends for Democrats.