Eight Republican candidates participated in the first basic discussion of the party in August. But the stage may have less competition when the Republican Party holds its next discussion later this month.
Joshua Lott / The Washington Post via Getty Images
The second presidential presidential debate is about two weeks, so the time for the Republican Party competitors is running out To meet the qualification criteria for the Republic National Committee. To conduct a discussion of September 27, Each candidate must be At least 3 percent of support in qualified old surveys, or at least 3 percent in one national poll and the same number in opinion polls from two different states in early voting, has been conducted since August 1. Each candidate must also provide evidence to achieve at least 50,000 unique donors to carry them. If they have opinion polls and donors, the candidates will once again signing a pledge to support the party’s candidate in the end of 2024 if they want to participate.
As is the case, there is a decent opportunity to be fewer than eight candidates Those who attended the first party gathering in August. It seems that six of those eight have donors and polls to conduct the second discussion, and each of them signed the RNC pledge to the first discussion, so there is no reason to believe that they will not sign again. However, the governor of the northern state of Dakota Doug Borgum and the former Arkansas ruler Asa Hijinson may face a problem again under September’s top thresholds for opinion polls and donors. After surpassing the first discussion despite qualifying easily – except for the signing of the RNC pledge – former President Donald Trump appears to be specific To avoid the second discussionalso.
It seems that at least six candidates are looking for the discussion of the second Republican Party
Republican presidential candidates through whether they were qualified and how they qualified for the second primary debate and if they signed the first pledge to discuss, starting at 4:30 pm on September 13, 2023
| candidate | Opinion polls | Donors | The first discussion pledge occurred |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Desantis | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™ âð’ððñšñš |
| Vivic Ramasuami | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš |
| Nikki Haley | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš |
| Mike Pines | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™ âð’ððñšñš |
| Chris Christie | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš |
| Tim Scott | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš |
| Donald Trump | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | |
| Doug Burgum | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | ð²’ñ ™’ð’ð’ðñšñš | |
| Asa Hachinson | ð²’ñ ™ âð’ððñšñš | ||
| Herd will |
FiveTyeight’s analysis was found that Florida Governor Ron Desantis and Head of Technology Vivek Ramasuami received support for at least 3 percent in each qualified survey (Trump also). Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pines and former New Jersey ruler Chris Christie, met in almost every questionnaire, while Senator South Carolina Tim Scott reached about three quarters. None of these six candidates showed any sign of difficulty when it came to reaching a donor of 50,000. Even Pence, which has difficulty attracting donors more than most of them, Declared in mid -August She has enough unique shareholders to qualify for the second discussion.
With the passage of 11 days until the qualified deadline on September 25, the polling threshold, which rises to 3 percent of 1 percent, is the main obstacle to the candidates who did not qualify. Burgum announced in late July He had 50,000 donors, but Fivethirtyeight analysis found that he reached 3 percent in only one wiping at the state level, a In the middle of August a survey of Iowa from the Trafalgar Group. Now, the Burgum campaign may argue that it reached 3 percent in New Hampshire, based on the 2.5 percent of his Another poll in mid -August Travalger Or 4 percent it achieved Early survey of CO/efficiency On behalf of the New Hampshire magazine. We cannot exclude that RNC may calculate the second Trafalgar poll, although RNC has not shown any indication that it was ready for the survey consequences reported with ten places while qualifying for the first discussion. However, because CO/efficiency I surveyed this courseNew Hampsheer survey will not be calculated Under the RNC polling base Which – which It excludes opinion polls conducted by affiliated organizations With a candidate or candidate committee.
However, regardless of whether he had surveys of two or two early states, Burghoum has struggled to strike the 3 percent mark in national investigative studies. No wonder Best of America Pac, Super Pac supports Burgum, Reserved $ 4 million of ads Between August 30 and September 24. However, there is not much evidence that has strengthened this Borgum: the most abundant national polls, Morning consultationIt has released data for seven surveys worldwide since August 1, but Borgum has received more than 0 percent only once, 1 percent in the mid -August survey Which preceded the purchase of Super Pac ad. In fact, Borgum 2 per cent in only one national poll was taking samples from at least 800 Republican voters since August 1, a Cable strategies survey I was conducted immediately after the first discussion.
Meanwhile, Hachinson needs more polls and Donors to provide theater, although it seems likely to reach a shareholder of 50,000. Last week, a campaign spokesperson ABC News told Hutchinson “very close” of donors’ requirements, and He got an increase at the last minute in shareholders To qualify for the first discussion. On the polling front, Hutchinson has something that does not tell: one national survey of 3 percent or better, thanks Kaplan strategies survey before the first discussion. But Hachinson has not exceeded 1 percent in any qualified survey in the country since the first debate. He did not achieve any best in the early state polls, which makes it unlikely to obtain rehabilitation polls from two different states to integrate with his national poll to fulfill the other voting qualification road in RNC.
It is difficult to imagine that any other Republican will get a qualifying shot to discuss September. It seems that the former Texas Will Hurd’s deputy has one qualified survey from New Hampshire – A MID-August Echanon Insights/Security Main Street Partnership survey But like Burguum and Hutchinson, it has struggled to scan 1 percent in most survey studies. And while Herd It can reach the donor mark at 50,000for him General rejection of the signing of the RNC pledge It almost guarantees that it will not give the stage. In addition, businessman Berry Johnson and radio host Larry Elder are close to the qualifiers for the first discussion, both of them Legal procedures threatened Against rnc It claims that He kept them unfairly outside the stage. But even if Johnson and/or the Sheikh can reach 50,000 donors – Johnson He claimed to have a lot In mid-August-none of the candidates has a qualified survey in his name.
Finally, Trump’s presence – or his absence – waving the discussion process. The former president investigates above 50 percent on the national average of Fivethirtyeight, making him a clear preferred to win the Republican Party nomination. Although the average Trump decreased slightly after the first discussion, he mainly recovered to his position before birth, indicating that voters did not really punish him for overcoming the event. No wonder then It appears to be determined to overcome the second debate And counter -support in that evening, just as he did for the first discussion When a pre -interview Between Trump and former Fox News host Taker Carlson broadcast at the same time.
With Trump’s possible absence, the second debate arises again to be a struggle between the leading alternatives of the party, none of them appears to be in a major challenge to Trump. However, it is important for these candidates to conduct the discussion stage, because failure to qualify can indicate donors that their campaigns have no chance of success. Moreover, without shedding light on Trump, the discussion will provide other Republican competitors with an opportunity To be seen and heard by a large audience. This is an opportunity that the candidates do not want to dispel, as the performance of the sterling debate can be performed – Be able to – The course of their campaign is transformed.