Low contributions from rich countries to a malaria fund could allow the disease to return, costing millions of lives and billions of pounds by the end of the decade, new analysis has shown.
The report warns that malaria control faces new threats, including extreme climate conditions, humanitarian crises that increase the number of people at risk, and increasing biological resistance to insecticides and drugs.
Gareth Jenkins, of No More Malaria UK, said: “Funding cuts threaten the most dangerous resurgence of the disease ever seen.”
Analysts said the cost to Sub-Saharan Africa would be significant, and the region’s leaders appealed to the G7 to maintain investment. They also asked the private sector and high-net-worth individuals to intervene, saying better control of the disease would fuel economic growth and trade.
“African countries are stepping up to the plate, and we are calling on the rest of the world to come along on this journey, because we all need to be part of the end malaria story,” said Joy Fumafi, of the African Leaders Against Malaria Alliance (ALMA), who co-commissioned the research with No Malaria UK anymore.
The report estimated the impact of funding cuts to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria – which is seeking donations to cover costs from 2027 to 2029. The Fund provides Nearly 60% of total international funding for malaria control Controls, such as mosquito nets and preventive medications.
If funding is 20% lower than in the last round, researchers said there would be an additional 33 million cases, 82,000 deaths, and $5.14 billion (£3.83 billion) in lost GDP by 2030, according to the report.
However, funding cuts appear likely. Germany Pledged $1 billion To the fund last week, a no 23% less From her last promise. The UK government is reportedly eyeing a 20% reduction on its previous commitment, although it says no final decision has been made.
If the funding gap led to a complete collapse of preventive malaria control efforts, the report estimates there would be another 525 million cases, 990,000 additional deaths, and a loss in gross domestic product of $83 billion. The report’s authors warned that about 750,000 of these deaths would be among children under the age of five, representing “the loss of an entire generation to malaria.”
Conversely, they said that if the Global Fund received The full $18 billion There would have been a $230 billion increase in GDP, 865 million fewer cases and 1.86 million fewer deaths.
Vumafi said there were “noticeable increases in… [domestic] The budget allocation is not only for health, but specifically for combating malaria, especially since the beginning of this year.
But she added: “I think we need to appreciate the enormity of the challenge and exactly how much funding is needed so that countries can catch up.”
She said that African countries burdened by debt service and the economic repercussions of Covid-19 face not only infectious diseases, but also a growing epidemic of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and cancer.
Vumafi said it was worrying that donor countries were considering making smaller pledges than in the last round, “but we are grateful that countries like Germany have pledged significant amounts – a billion is a very large sum.”
Botswana’s former health minister said she hoped wealthy individuals, the private sector and institutions would step up their efforts “because when we talk about productivity, jobs… [and the] The economic potential that Africa tends to lose, we are talking about potential investments and markets for the private sector.
One such individual, Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote, encouraged others to join him in bridging the financing gap: “Malaria is not just a health crisis; it is holding back growth and enterprise in Africa worth $83 billion. Businesses cannot thrive in sick communities.”
The impact of malaria on GDP was measured using factors including school disruption, staff absence, and its impact on tourism and agriculture.