At 3 pm on December 30 of last year, residents of Mukoko village in Makini Province, Kenya, were amazed by a loud loud crash. In the middle of the field, put a mysterious and double metal loop, 2.5 meters and weighs about 500 kg. Elsewhere, in western Uganda in May 2023, villagers reported seeing fire lines in the sky before the debris rained, scattered over an area of 40 km.
This was not an ordinary meteorite – the remains of a violated satellite were and spent the missile stage, and returned to the ground without warning.
Seek to conquer an undesirable problem on the ground area
These events are not isolated. Throughout the world, from Texas to Saudi Arabia, from Cape Town to the Amazon rainforest, the things that were launched in the Earth’s low Earth orbit (LEO) is now returning to Earth. Some burn without harm in the air, but others-especially those made of Titanium alloys and bars of the heat-resistant area-Tango from re-entering and landing on the ground, and sometimes in populated areas.
The problem gets worse. With the rapid expansion of the commercial space journey, thousands of satellites are launched every year. However, few owners have plans to remove from orbit in a controlled manner.
Everyone, everywhere – on the surface of the Earth, flies in the planes, as well as in space – at an increased risk of these projectiles1.
Countries and companies that start from space must treat this threat urgently. Re-inserting uncontrolled space is not just a source of inconvenience-it is a legal, environmental and possibly disastrous problem. Without new policies and mitigation strategies, it is a matter of time only before one of these incidents leads to a loss of lives.
A growing problem above
Low Earth orbit, the area of 160 km to 2000 km above the surface of the Earth, is the most crowded tropical area. It is a home to photograph satellite, weather and communications stations and space stations such as the International Space Station (ISS).
It is also the largest part of the area, and it houses more than 6000 tons of human objects. The World Economic Forum expects that by 2030, more than 60,000 satellites will be launched, which is scheduled to become a wreck.2and3.
Four steps for the global management of space traffic
Most of the re -inserts of satellites are not controlled. Some space agencies deliberately direct satellites to the ocean. However, many operators simply leave them for a natural decomposition, without any certainty around the place where it will fall. It can be any location on the ground in the shooting line.
As things in Liu experience clouds in the atmosphere, they gradually slow down and return to Earth. Smaller fragments are burned during re -entering, but often, it remains a piece of missile pieces, fuel components and satellite components, where they collide on the ground at hundreds of kilometers per second. The energy issued by its effects can be equivalent to that of a small missile4. The higher the re -entry speed, the further wreckage can spread.
Predicting the crash sites is very difficult. When an object falls from space, his way to Earth is not a straight line or even soft. The prediction of the place that the land will get, includes complex calculations and many factors, including the rotation of the land, gravity, wind, the initial speed of the object and its height.5. Mathematical models, such as NASA’s survival analysis and simplified general disorders models, can be used to estimate the course of the decomposed orbital debris.
A large piece of debris was found from a spacecraft in Salinopolis, Brazil, in April 2014.Credit
History has repeatedly showed that crises are often ignored to escalate to disasters. Space debris is not an exception, and failure to treat it urgently can have severe consequences. Imagine a large industrial satellite, weighing several tons, returning to the Earth’s atmosphere without warning. Unlike the control that is controlled by the Mir Space Station in 2001, this object may deviate from the path and collide with the city. The destruction will be catastrophic, which brings legal, political and financial chaos.
The risks extend beyond the Earth effects. The main attention – rarely discussed – is a possible collision between low debris and commercial aircraft. At any time, there are more than 10,000 aircraft in the air worldwide. Unlimited proportions of a thick and high -speed object through crowded air corridors can lead to a disaster in the air. Currently, there are no global protocols to warn pilots or airlines about the next debris. In 2022, the American airspace was briefly closed due to the re -enlarged missile body. Although such a closure is rare, the increase in global space activity makes similar accidents more likely, which confirms the need for stricter regulations about mitigating debris and controlling controlled to prevent future disorders and safety risks.
Successive collision threats
In addition to the immediate threat, there is a risk waving on the horizon known as the Kisler syndrome2. This scenario, which was proposed by NASA, Donald Kisler in 1978, predicts the point where the density of creatures in Liu becomes so high that the collision between them generates more debris, leading to a series of additional collisions.
This course, which is the same, can make some tropical areas unusable, which poses risks on satellites, satellite missions and ISS. As of 2021, there were more than 4000 active satellites in orbit, with estimates of 600,000 unwanted pieces ranging from 1-10 cm in size6. On average, a satellite is destroyed every year when it collides with a satellite or a piece of debris.
The first wooden satellite in the world can preach the era of green space exploration
The increasing amount of space debris is no longer a distance or hypothetical threat; It is an immediate danger. ESA estimates indicate that as of February of this year, More than 36,000 creatures are more than 10 cm It is currently tracked in the Earth’s orbit and more than a million objects ranging from 1 cm and 10 cm revolve around the planet. Even small fragments – which are discovered through current tracking systems – can cause huge amounts of damage due to the absolute speed they travel. ISS depends on the Basti Protection panels, but the shielding alone is not enough. The station’s crew must remain awake; Space astronauts are particularly vulnerable.
The escalating position confirms the decisive need for space management strategies and a collision to ensure long -term feasibility to explore and use space. As tropical congestion exacerbates, the need to track, accountable and unrepresentation becomes uninterrupted.
Moreover, sunlight is reflected from and burning orbital debris contributes to light pollution, and increases with the scenes of the night sky of earthly scientific betting. For example, it is difficult to miss the bright tracks of the space towers in Spacex, although they are not classified as active wreck, while moving across the night sky. In January, astronomers in Tesla Roadster, an electric sports car that was launched by SpaceX in 2018 as a trick, made a asteroid that could threaten the Earth. Forced to perpetuate global resources to track such an object is illuminated.