Editor’s note: Justin Lynch is a researcher and analyst in Washington, DC. He is a co -author of the book “The incomplete Sudanese democracy“The views expressed here are a reading More opinion CNN.
CNN
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About four years ago, almost today, the people of Sudan were celebrating a revolution after the overthrow of the dictator Omar Al -Bashaer for a long time. Now East Africa is facing the possibility of a complete collapse similar to the chaos that we see today in Yemen or Libya.
On Saturday, the competing military factions began to fight each other in the capital of Khartoum. The two sides fought to control the airports of the nation, bases and military vehicles. Violence quickly poured into the streets and throughout the country.
There are about 45 million Sudanese who are being held effectively and they cannot get out of their homes for fear of killing them in the crossing. At least 180 people They perished in the fighting, including three World Food Program Human workers.
The conflict flourishes bitter competitors and their strong armed forces against each other. On the one hand, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abd al -Faih al -Bouran. On the other hand, there are RSFs, a paramilitary group led by Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemti.
There is no good side in this conflict. Both are accused of long reconciliation of human rights violations.
How did Sudan move from getting rid of authoritarian rule and creating an emerging democracy a few years ago to swing on the edge of the state’s collapse?
On April 11, 2019, the Sudan dictator was overthrown long, Bashir. The reason for the removal of Bashir was months of protests led by Sudan unions, which motivated a SAF and RSF military coup. Burhan and Hemeti joined the removal of their former president.
It was a moment of promise because there is hope for democracy. I remember that I wander in a “sit-in”-a giant carnival of freedom in the center of Khartoum, which the demonstrators pulled to demand a change. It was electrically.
But social movements such as the Sudanese Association (SPA) – the union behind the protest – is often struggling to translate their momentum into a real political force.
The reason for this is, partly, structural. Social movements such as spa are often based on popular activity. The dictator can arrest one or two leaders of the organization, but not an entire country.
However, as soon as the dictator is overthrown, these types of social movements often fight the hierarchy of the necessary leadership during the political negotiations that are taking place. Like many other movements, Sudan demonstrators have not been able to translate mobilization into political power.
Civil leaders entered into negotiations with the army on the future of the country shortly after the fall of Bashir in April 2019. The two sides were not equal. Because of these leadership challenges, the pro -democracy forces struggled to bargain with the disciplined army.
Any momentum was concluded that the defenders supporting democracy were sealed during the negotiations in June 2019 when the RSF soldiers Dispersed Sit -in. More than 100 people were killed.
After the June massacre and driving challenges, Transitional constitution It was signed in August 2019, which gave SAF and RSF most of the force in Sudan. Parayan was the head of state, and he put my hemorts in a high political situation. The elections promised in 2022, but a few of them believe that they would actually happen.
The transitional period began in August 2019, and an interview with Abdullah Hamdouwouk, the Civil Prime Minister, had several times on a book that he participated in writing on the Sudan revolution. The way in which the constitution wrote means that Hamduk was limited in power as prime minister. Petran was the head of state and wanted to preserve the SAF powers.
Hamdoouk told me often that the revolutions come in courses. The 2019 Bashir removal process was a high point of the revolution, and he saw that his job is making the largest possible number of repairs before the anti -tide decreased.
Hamdok found that the legacy of 30 years of dictatorship means that the political and economic models of Sudan were dilapidated. But Borhan and Timeti prevented the great reforms that Hamdouk wanted to establish.
Violence has grown outside the hose. Parts of Sudan, such as Darfur, witnessed a new round of conflict between the ethnic groups deployed by the RSF forces. More than 430,000 people It is displaced Because of the conflict in Sudan, most of them are in Darfur.
The soldiers did not hide the atrocities they committed against civilians. I remember drinking tea with a soldier in line with RSF at his home in Darfur, explaining why he recently participated in burning a village from another ethnic group.
The soldier caused the killing of a member of his tribe in a quarrel, so RSF forces took revenge on the burning of a village whose habitat 30,000 people. at least 163 people died.
Tensions have grown between SAF and RSF. Parayan looked at my hemorts and his forces in RSF as two rapists from Darfur who were not depleted. On the other hand, Hemti believed that it was time for Darfur to lead Sudan.
Hamdok was on the start of the economy when Burhan and SAF enter. As we wrote in the book “The Blinding Sudanese Democracy”, the potential success of a civilian government was too much for Bourhan. In October 2021, Hamdok was removed in a military coup.
After the October 2021 coup, the United States and the United Nations pushed a worse version of the transitional constitution in Sudan. They argued It was the best way to bring democracy.
The idea was to restart the transitional period, but many others argued that it was short -sighted and You will not work. The return to a government led by Bourhan was clearly He will not go to the savings In democracy. If the plan ends in a coup the first time, then why do you work the second time?
Some activists stopped partnership with the United States and came to see the United Nations mission A road barrier for democracy Because of these policies. I felt unfortunately when I spoke with the best American and foreign diplomats, who also understood international politics in Sudan would not succeed. They saw faults, but they were unable to oppose the opposition and forced to make decisions that made many levels above it.
The above erupted the clashes this week Controversial From the international policy that tried to unite SAF and RSF. The idea was to make one army, but he neither wanted my hemore nor Paoran to give up the strength they collected.
The army unification plan did not work in similar contexts. He was repetition From the 2013 and 2016 unification operations that occurred in southern Sudan with similar bloody results. Instead, the weak relationship between Bourhan and Timiti boils due to pressure.
It may be easy to consider the modern history of “revolutions” in countries such as Myanmar, Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan, and concluded with the inverse results in the end. I do not agree. I have learned from Sudanese activists that the nation’s political wealth is an active battle.
One day we can hope that Sudan will see the dreams of democracy. But now, the Sudanese people only hope to survive a day.
The lesson from Sudan is that the revolution is only the beginning of change, not the end.