Long life gains slow with an average life expectant of 100 unlikely, and discover the study

A new study in which a professor at the University of Wisconsin Madison participated that the gains of the expected life achieved by the high -income countries in the first half of the twentieth century were largely slowing, and that any of the generations born after 1939 will reach 100 years of age on average.

Published In the magazine The facts of the National Academy of SciencesThe study conducted by Héctor PIFARRRII I Arolas from the La Follette School for Public Affairs, José Andrade from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and Carlo Giovanni Camarda from the National Institute of Inspirational Institute.

“It seems that the unprecedented increase in the average life that we achieved in the first half of the twentieth century is unlikely to achieve it again in the foreseeable future,” says Papeari I, Aarlas. “In the absence of any large breakthroughs that expand a person’s life significantly, the average life expectancy does not coincide with the rapid increases that were seen in the early twentieth century even if adults are improved twice as we expect.”

From 1900 to 1938, the average life expected increased by about five and a half months with each new generation. The average expectation of the individual born in a high -income country in 1900 was 62 years old. For a person born only 38 years after similar circumstances, the average life expectancy jumped to 80 years on average.

For those who were born between 1939 and 2000, the increase slowed down to nearly two and a half months to three and a half months for each generation, depending on the prediction method. Mortality prediction methods are statistical techniques that make informed predictions about future life based on previous and current death information. These models enabled the research team to estimate how the average life has evolved in light of a variety of reasonable future scenarios.

“We expected that those who were born in 1980 would not live to be 100 on average, and that none of the dust in our study will reach this teacher. This decline is largely due to the fact that previously of life has been driven by remarkable improvements in survival at a very young age,” says the corresponding and Andradi.

At the beginning of the twentieth century, infant deaths decreased rapidly due to medical progress and other improvements in the quality of life for high -income countries. This greatly contributed to the rapid increase in the average life expectancy. However, infants and children’s deaths are now so low that the expected improvements in deaths in the older age groups will not be sufficient to maintain the pace of previous gains for the gains of longevity.

Although death expectations can never be sure that the future may be revealed in unexpected ways – through the method of epidemics, new medical treatments, or other unexpected societal changes – this study provides a decisive vision for governments that look forward to expecting their health care systems, planning pension and social policies.

Although the population analysis is made, this research also has effects on individuals, as the average life expectancy affects personal decisions on savings, retirement and long -term planning. If the average life expectancy increases in a slower way, as this study appears, both governments and individuals may need to calibrate their expectations for the future.