Levels of Contenders in the NBA: At the halfway mark, 10 teams look like a serious title threat

We are now halfway through NBA season. It’s time for the second batch of challenger levels. There has been some movement since the first edition, with the Pistons, Spurs and Wolves rising, the Suns and Celtics continuing to impress, and the bottom falling out for the Bucks.

As a reminder, this is not a power ranking for the entire league. Only teams with a chance to make the postseason are shown here, although the mileage may vary depending on who qualifies.

Level 1: Still heroes

Things got a little shaky there for a moment. After starting the season 24-1, the Thunder hit a rough patch and went 6-6. They have lost to Tottenham three times in less than three weeks. That quickly put an end to speculation about whether the Thunder might reach 74 wins and set an NBA record. Instead, he’s starting to get serious about OKC being vulnerable.

The disturbing trolling ended as quickly as it started. The Thunder are on a five-game winning streak that includes victories over the Rockets and Spurs. They remain first in defensive rating by a wide margin and are fifth on offense. The 13.1-point spread would be the best in NBA history, breaking a record set just last year. With Nikola Jokic wasting time, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the odds-on favorite in the bookmakers to win his second straight MVP award. Because of the arbitrary 65-game limit, someone not named Victor Wimbanema may be the Defensive Player of the Year. Right now, the odds are that someone will be Chet Holmgren (-135 on FanDuel).

If there is any momentary doubt, rest assured that the Thunder are still really good. To paraphrase Ric Flair, to be champions, you have to beat champions.

Level 2: Biggest Challengers

• Detroit Pistons
• San Antonio Spurs
• Denver Nuggets
• Minnesota Timberwolves

The Pistons have the second-best record in the NBA. They have done just fine in the Eastern Conference, where they are 21-6. That most recently includes squeezing the Knicks by 31, a team that has puffed its chest about being a conference contender. Detroit ranks second in defensive rating and nearly in the top 10 on offense. Cade Cunningham is a lock to make All-NBA for the second straight season and currently sits third in MVP odds behind only SGA and Luka Dončić. (He’s ranked second in that department, for the record.) Jalen Duren has made a huge jump, and they’re getting contributions up and down the roster from everyone from Ozar Thompson to Duncan Robinson to Caris LeVert. J.B. Bickerstaff for Coach of the Year.

When the Spurs beat OKC three times in about two weeks, they put the league on notice that not only are they ready for the future, they’re here now. The weird part about this is that Wimbanyama didn’t have a bunch of hideous outings, at least not by his standards. After returning from a calf injury, Spurs have slowly brought him on and brought him off the bench. He has only recently returned to the starting lineup. This is the scary part for the opposition. San Antonio is top-10 in both offense and defense this season and they haven’t had a fully healthy and fully functional Wimpy for a good chunk of games. Imagine what they can do when everyone is up and running.

After Jokic went down, I thought the Nuggets would go down too. In addition to Joker, Denver has had some bad luck with injuries this season, with four of their five starters missing serious time at various points, as well as senior backup Jonas Valanciunas. Yet the Nuggets continue to fight. A lot of that has to do with keeping Jamal Murray afloat while the Joker is on the mend. Murray is having a career season and is on pace to make the All-Star team for the first time. The Nuggets’ top-ranked offense has made up for their deficiencies on defense (Denver ranks just 23rd). Peyton Watson has developed into a legitimate two-way player, while Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown have been major contributors to a greatly improved bench. When the nuggets are healthy, pay attention. Don’t forget that a much worse version of the Nuggets took OKC to Game 7 in the postseason last year. In our latest playoff predictions, I was one of many staffers who picked the Nuggets out of the crowded West.

The Wolves got off to a slow start but have since established themselves as high as fourth in the West. They rank sixth in offensive rating and ninth in defense, and have the third-best point differential in the conference. And it’s no surprise that Anthony Edwards is regressing right now (even though the Wolves just gave up 55 points on him in a loss in San Antonio over the weekend). Don’t be surprised if he climbs into the top five in the MVP race. The Wolves may have stumbled at the trade deadline, but the team that has reached the Western Conference Finals twice in a row is on a roll again.

Level 3: What, Why, and How?

Raise your hand if you think the Celtics will be a legitimate Eastern Conference contender at midseason? Unless you live in Boston, get your hands on Malden or Waltham. Actually put your hand up if you live in those places too. Nobody believes you. Deep down, I doubt the Celtics really thought he’d be in this place right now.

But here they are. Jayson Tatum fell to the playoffs in 2025 with an Achilles injury and still hasn’t played this season (although he and the Celtics have made a lot of noise about him returning in time for the postseason, if not before). Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet were cost-cutting measures in order to prevent the organization from paying nearly half a billion dollars to a team that everyone thought was taking a gap year.

Instead, the Celtics are where they usually are — near the top of the Eastern Conference. Jaylen Brown is having a career year and should be in the MVP conversation. Derrick White is once again on the shortlist for All-Defense — he’s in the 96th percentile in defensive overestimation — while also enjoying the highest usage rate of his career and being asked to shoulder more of the offensive load than ever before.

With the exception of those guys and Payton Pritchard, it’s anyone’s guess who will step up on a given night because Joe Mazzola has dug so deep into his coaching bag that he has 11 players in his regular rotation. What an accomplishment all the way. As I mentioned, Bickerstaff is my coach of the year at the moment, but no one can argue with Mazzola winning it.

Maybe the Celtics should be in the second tier. Before the season, saying they could legitimately win the East was ridiculous. Not anymore.

Fourth layer: the rest of the West

• Houston Rockets
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Phoenix Suns

Before their final home game, the Rockets had played just 13 of their first 36 games in Houston. This is unusual, and did not help their scoring. Houston is 11-12 on the road and has had to deal with some strange trips this season, including a recent swing where the Rockets elected to stay in San Francisco before a game against the Kings, who play more than 80 miles away in Sacramento. Clearly there are problems with the hotel. First world problems. The point here is that spending more time on their home floor would help things improve for the Rockets 15th in remaining strength of schedule. Being at home may also help them find their offensive appeal again; They ranked 22nd in offensive rating in January after the cold snap. The good news is that their +6.4 point differential is second best in the West, and they are in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating this season even with their January struggles.

Putting the Lakers and Suns here seems more aspirational than realistic. The Lakers have Luka, LeBron James and Austin Reeves (when he eventually returns from a calf injury) which gives them a chance to play spoiler and possibly win a playoff series, but they have obvious flaws in roster design. They’re 26th in defensive rating — but somehow they’re third in that department in clutch games, where they’re 13-1. This disparity and inconsistent efforts Coach JJ Redick almost drove him crazy. The poor man grows old in his presidential years.

Unlike the Lakers, the Suns play with house money. No one expected them to do anything this season. They are one of the pleasant surprises in the league, and are on the verge of falling out of play into the top six. Jalen Green should be back from injury soon, Devin Booker is having a stellar season, and there’s a whole group of really useful players in the rotation, from Dillon Brooks to Grayson Allen to Collin Gillespie. First-year coach Jordan Ott should get some love from COY as well.

Layer 5: Uh oh?

Let’s start with the positives. The Knicks are in third place in the East. They are third in offensive rating. For now, they remain the favorites to win the conference (+300 on FanDuel).

Now the parts involved. Since winning the NBA Cup and refusing to hang a banner (“Never anger the mighty Cup Gods”), the Knicks have gone 7-10. They’ve lost eight of their last 10 games, including getting run over by the Pistons, an ugly loss on the road in Sacramento, and a loss at home to the Suns over the weekend with a group of Knicks alumni on hand at Madison Square Garden to witness the humiliation. Jalen Brunson is having an MVP-caliber season — but he injured his ankle early in that loss to the Kings and missed the final two games. You’ll recall that Brunson has had ankle issues previously, including last season when he missed a month of the season. Knicks is praying that won’t be the case this time.

Karl-Anthony Towns is having another All-Star campaign even while having one of the worst shooting seasons of his career. (His 52.5% eFG would be the worst mark of his career.)

What’s even more troubling is that they can’t stop anyone, which is troubling considering they employ two of the best all-around defenders in the league in OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, as well as one of the best rim protectors in Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks rank 19th in defensive rating. This is worrying in itself, but the situation is getting worse. Over their last 15 games, they rank 27th in this division. Only the Pelicans, Nuggets and Jazz were worse. It’s hard to be a real contender when you’re constantly under pressure on defense. History suggests they are in trouble.

Sixth class: honorable mention

The Cavaliers haven’t been able to find a real rhythm all season. The Warriors have won seven of their last 10 games, but the atmosphere hasn’t been great in a while. Justice for Jonathan Kuminga. There were almost no expectations for the Raptors and Sixers going into this season. Count it among the pleasant surprises. (If Joel Embiid plays half a season and is upright in the playoffs, that’s a big win for the Sixers — especially with Tyrese Maxey emerging as Philly’s main man.) I’m still not convinced Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero work as a viable duo.

Seventh layer: not pictured

everyone. The Blazers and Deni Avdija watches are surprisingly fun watches. The Grizzlies are a mess. Good luck finding a true rider and returner for Ja Morant (even with the monster game he played in London). Yes, the Clippers have played better lately — they’ve won five straight games and 12 of their last 14 — but no, I don’t buy them doing anything notable even if they sneak into plays. Especially since they just sent Kawhi Leonard home from their road trip because Irritation in his left knee.