After a brutal, record-setting flu season, doctors and health officials are bracing for another wave of fever, misery and shortness of breath.
In the United Kingdom, health officials warn… Early rise in influenza levels Among children and youth. In Japan, health officials recently declared an influenza epidemic and closed schools after experiencing an outbreak An unusually large number of influenza cases Early in the season.
What does this mean for the United States?
Typically, influenza cases begin to rise in November, along with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and enteroviruses, and Peak in February. But experts worry that the chaos caused by job cuts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the government shutdown may make it difficult to know how the virus will evolve this fall.
Latest CDC Influenza report for the United States. It was for the week ending September 20, when there was minimal activity.
Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, is concerned that influenza may have limited surveillance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, leaving the United States blind to the size and scope of the influenza outbreak.
“Everything from awareness campaigns to more logistical efforts to actually get the vaccines out” could be affected, Rasmussen said. “This information may not be available, so it will be very difficult to coordinate the national response,” she added.
Last year’s flu was tough. There were about 1.1 million Influenza-related hospitalizationsThat’s the highest rate in 14 years, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There were the highest number of doctor visits for influenza-like illnesses in more than a decade.
An estimated 38,000 to 99,000 deaths were associated with the 2024-2025 flu season. According to a preliminary assessment By the Center for Disease Control. For children, this was one of the deadliest years ever: 280 children died from influenza. At least three of those children died in June and July, far from a typical flu season.
How bad is the flu?
The flu is hard to predict, and this year, things are already looking a little different.
The CDC predicted at the end of August that This flu season will be milder From last year. However, there is a possibility that some age groups will be severely affected, especially if people do not get the flu vaccine.
Main strains of influenza The viruses currently circulating are similar to those that caused severe outbreaks last season: H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A, as well as influenza B.
“It’s a bit too early to know which strains will dominate this year’s flu season, but there is certainly a risk that highly virulent strains will circulate again this year,” said Dr. Jorge Diaz, a fellow of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and chief of medicine at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington. He said: “This prediction of a mild season may be wrong, and it may be another severe influenza season.”
“We’re still very early in the flu season in North America, and it’s a little difficult to know for sure,” he added.
Experts say that even if someone had the flu last year, they will still be susceptible to the new version because immunity wanes over time, especially in older people and those with weak immunity.
When is the best time to get the flu shot?
Stress is just one factor in how bad the situation has become this year. Vaccine hesitancy and poor public health infrastructure in the United States can contribute to the spread of influenza.
“It will be driven more by social and political changes than by virus-related changes,” Rasmussen said.
Last flu season Less than half of children have been vaccinated against influenzaA decrease of more than 20 percentage points from the 2019-2020 season. That trend is expected to continue this year, Rasmussen said.
It’s difficult to know how severe the disease will be this year in the United States, but it is highly unusual to have “two high-risk seasons in a row,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
So, even though the virus hasn’t changed much, vaccination is the best way to protect against the worst of the season.
“October is the ideal time for vaccination,” he said. “That should provide very reasonable protection throughout what we consider the flu season, into February and into March.”