Democrats hope for a long victory in the private elections on Tuesday in the first and sixth congressional areas in Florida, as they look at the erosion of the narrow majority of the Republican Party in the House of Representatives.
The regions are severe republics: In November, President Trump won the first Florida with a margin of 37 points and sixth in 30 points.
But the special elections tend to be better for Democrats, who have already achieved disturbances in multiple legislative elections in the states this year. In January, the Democratic Candidate of the Senate seat in Iowa Four points won In an area, Mr. Trump took 20 points. In March, Pennsylvania Democrat Two points In a special elections in the Senate in an area carried out by Mr. Trump with more than 10 points last year.
After increasing the hopes of Democrats, some recent opinion polls found a more strict race than expected in the sixth region.
We follow the partisan division of the voters who made their votes in both the private house races in Florida. Although the data that voters turned to can be useful for understanding the feature that has an advantage, it cannot categorically tell us who will win. For one reason, Democratic or Republican voters may not necessarily vote for their party’s candidate. In addition, a large share of voters has not been recorded on both sides.
We have divided the turnout into two Dlnat: “early turn”, which includes voters who re -spaped the postal and those who voted early on the person, and “Iqbal Electoral Day”, which will be fixed on Tuesday when people vote personally. The first opinion polls will be closed on Tuesday at 7 pm.
Note that partisanship can vary greatly between people who personally vote on election day and those who vote early. In general, voters who made their votes, especially those who vote by mail, tend to be more democratic than people who personally vote on election day.
For context, our followers also include the demand and results of the presidential elections in these areas of the 2024 presidential elections for voters early and the elections.
The first area of Congress in Florida was represented by Matt Gitz, who resigned a few days after his re -election after Mr. Trump nominated him to be the public prosecutor. Mr. Gaetz at the end of the look. Gay Democratic Valmonet and Republican Jimmy Jimmy, a sponsor in voting.
The Sixth Congress in Florida was evacuated by Michael Walz after President Trump chose him to be his national security adviser. Mr. Waltz recently included the Atlantic Ocean editor in a signal chat group in which senior US officials discussed sensitive military plans. Joshua Will, Democrat, and the Republic of Randy is a fine running for his old seat.
Jonah Smith Data analysis contributed.