Experts say grounded MD-11 cargo planes could delay shipping over the holidays

The Federal Aviation Administration has ordered all McDonnell Douglas MD-11 planes to be grounded pending further inspection, after both UPS and FedEx decided to ground the planes that are part of their cargo fleet.

The FAA’s emergency directive issued Saturday bans the MD-11 from flying because it has “determined that the unsafe condition is likely to exist or develop in other products of the same type of design.”

The grounding comes after a UPS MD-11 plane crashed shortly after takeoff in Louisville, Kentucky, last week, killing 14 people.

Although the MD-11s make up a small share of UPS and FedEx’s freight fleet, some aviation experts say that depending on how long the MD-11s are grounded, it could delay holiday deliveries.

The cause of the accident is still under investigation. Boeing on Friday He said in a statement MD-11 operators should “suspend flight operations while additional engineering analysis is conducted,” adding that the recommendation is “extremely cautious.” Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas in 1997.

Here’s what to know about the MD-11 and holiday shipping.

MD-11s make up a small percentage of the freighter fleet

The MD-11s were first introduced in 1986 and began service flights in December 1990, and the last MD-11s were built in 2000, according to Boeing.

In 2023, UPS said it will begin replacing the MD-11s with more efficient Boeing 767s. According to FreightWaves. Over the past three years, FedEx has retired 20 MD-11 aircraft and had plans to retire the rest of its fleet by fiscal 2032, said John Dietrich, executive vice president and chief financial officer of FedEx Corporation. he said in March.

Of the more than 500 planes used by UPS, only 26 are MD-11s, according to the shipping company. FedEx said it has 28 MD-11s out of about 700 in its fleet.

Western Global Airlines, an air cargo carrier, also uses MD-11s in its fleet. NPR reached out to Western Global Airlines for comment but did not receive a response.

Holiday deliveries may be affected

Both UPS and FedEx told NPR that contingency plans are in place to minimize disruption to deliveries. The companies did not share details, but some aviation experts told NPR that some cargo could be transferred to passenger planes, trains and trucks.

There could still be an impact on deliveries during the holiday season, said Jeremy Tancredi, a partner specializing in supply chain issues at consulting firm West Monroe who previously worked for UPS as an industrial engineer.

“As this peak volume increases, and you need every bit of transport capacity, not having 26 planes could be a real big factor for them,” Tancredi told NPR.

Each MD-11 plane used by UPS can carry 20,000 packages, the company said.

While the MD-11s are a small part of the UPS and FedEx fleet, delivery impacts could also depend on how long the plane is grounded, said Mike Stengel, a partner at AeroDynamic Advisory.

“If the ban is extended beyond a week or two, then as it gets closer to the holidays, there’s definitely the potential for package delays,” Stengel told NPR.

Stengel also said the FAA’s directive for airports to reduce flights as the government shutdown continues and air traffic controllers remain unpaid should not impact deliveries.

“Shippers have generally been insulated from the recent reductions in the FAA’s caps on flight activity in just the last few days, because the caps are generally for daytime flights, while UPS and FedEx generally fly in the middle of the night,” Stengel told NPR. “So there’s not the same pressure from air traffic controllers in the middle of the night.”

Deliveries are expected to jump 5% during the holiday season compared to the 2024 holiday season, with an estimated 2.3 billion packages delivered, according to the consulting and analytics firm. ShipMatrix. It is not clear whether UPS or FedEx will adjust their holiday shipping deadlines due to the MD-11 grounding.

Tancredi has advice for those looking to send packages to loved ones during the holidays: “Shop early.”

“With the capacity of the rail network increasing, and with the capacity of the ground network and trucks increasing, there is still time to order online and get your holiday packages there,” he said.