More warming will lead to severe consequences such as severe forest fires
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Even with moderate emissions of greenhouse gases, the planet is currently expected to heat about 3 degrees Celsius, there is an opportunity 1 in 10 to reach 7 degrees Celsius of warming in about 200 years. This is according to the climate model that explored what could happen over thousands of years.
“Three degrees are really very bad, of course,” he says. Andrei Gaanopopolsky At the Potsdam Climate Research Institute in Germany. “Seven are not bad like 3, or even three times bad. It may be 10 times worse, because many things are not written.”
The model also shows that even if emissions stop tomorrow, there is an opportunity about 1 in 10 that the planet still heats up with more than 3 degrees Celsius.
The extent of the planet is partially reluctant to the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that we pump into the air, and partly over the climate sensitivity to the increase in greenhouse gases.
The amount of warming that may occur in the long term after doubling the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is called an allergy to the balance climate. This depends on the various counted feeding effects that occur when temperatures rise, such as increases in water vapor in the atmosphere and changes in cloud behavior. Studies indicate that climate balance can be in any place from 2 ° C to 5 degrees Celsius, but for models exceeding 2100, it was supposed to be 3 degrees Celsius.
The Ganopolski and his team instead modified their model to explore what the effect will be if the equilibrium climate sensitivity is different from this expectation.
Their model also includes additional carbon effects in the long term such as CO2 launch and methane of frosty soil and wetlands. Ganopopolsky says previous models that look after 2100 did not include both carbon dioxide and methane.
He says that both can have a significant effect, because high carbon dioxide leads to the release of more methane and vice versa.
For the allergy to balance of 3 ° C, the team’s results are similar to other studies, which leads to a high temperature of about 3 degrees Celsius after 2200 for moderate emissions scenario. For supposed upper sensitivities, typical projects heating up to 7 ° C.
While the twenty -third century may seem far away, it is not far from human generations, says Ganopopolsky. “I have grandchildren to live in the next century.”
The reason for the presence of a lot of uncertainty about the sensitivity of the balance climate is that the emissions of aerosols have returned to the effect of warming of greenhouse gases, says Ganopolsky. Low freight emissions are believed to have contributed to the last fast warming, for example.
The effects of the aerosols are very complex, which makes it difficult to determine the effect of cooling. “At present, we cannot exclude high climate sensitivities,” he says.
He says the path of emissions, which we believe will reach 2 ° C in 2100. Andy Welshir In Met Office, National Weather Service in the United Kingdom.
This was already well known, but it is usually expressed in terms of the percentage to fulfill a specific goal. This paper appears in a different way. “What I like about the paper is the way the information is provided,” he says.
Ganopolsky says: If the climate sensitivity is on the low side, future emissions are limited, it is still possible to avoid a temperature of 3 ° C, “says Ganopolsky.
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