TThis has been the trend in recent NFL seasons. Around Week 8, the MVP race begins to follow a predictable script: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson will almost certainly go down (if the Ravens roll).
Between 2015 and 2019, the NFL had four first-time MVP winners — Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mahomes and Jackson. But in the past five years, only Allen has been a first-time winner (Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes and Jackson were the other victors).
Allen is the favorite to return this season, which would make it five times in the past six years that the league has had a previous winner. But voters feel exhausted; Everyone wants a new star. The list of nominees for the first time this year seems unusually deep and interesting. These guys probably won’t win this last year, but let’s take a look at the players who can break up the Mahomes-Allen-Jackson trio in the next few seasons.
A few notes: The ratings below are for players’ chances of winning the award in the next few years, not this season specifically. We’ve also eliminated perennial contenders like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott in favor of some longer picks.
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
This is no longer a joke: Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In Minnesota, it was easy to mock his rise. You can point out the graphic environment and its excellent supporting cast. This is not the case in Seattle.
The Seahawks’ run game isn’t complete yet. The offensive line has improved, but still lags behind the league’s best players. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was one of the top five receivers in the league this year, but has been elevated thanks to Darnold’s decision-making and accuracy.
Seattle has reorganized its offense around Darnold, who is still only 28 years old (younger than Burrow, who was drafted two years later). They hunt big plays, relying on Darnold’s arm to push the ball down the field. In this role, he looks more like Stafford than the Darnold we saw during his years with the Jets. Early in his career, Darnold struggled when under pressure, staring down rushers and blotting out costly turnovers. He stripped a lot of that fat from his game. Where he once saw ghosts, he now creates plays when his protection collapses or the crime structure is stopped.
Jump through any quarterback metric you want, and Darnold will be at the top of the list, or near the top. He leads the league in the RBSDM Composite, which compiles the value of each offensive play and measures how much of a quarterback can be considered responsible for that value. Whoever tops that number by the end of the year usually ends up in the bottom three in MVP voting.
In five weeks, Darnold has proven that last season in Minnesota was no fluke. It is what it is now, and it was an upgrade for Seattle over Geno Smith. If he can lead the Seahawks to a division title, a redemption story will carry him into the conversation with Allen and Mahomes.
MVP Probability: 7/10. This year might be his best chance to win it.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Talk about redemption arcs. There was a time when the Panthers hired Baker Mayfield and Darnold. Sorry. Mayfield is gone Scout team pass rusher In Carolina for a franchise quarterback in Tampa Bay.
The MVP award is, to some extent, a narrative award, and few have a more fascinating story than Mayfield. Burrow, Stafford and Prescott are the best quarterbacks. But there’s something about his story that should garner more confidence among voters. Several franchises gave up on him before he arrived in Tampa. He has had three different offensive coordinators in the past three seasons, but has continued to lead the Bucs’ offense at the highest level.
Mayfield wasn’t as clean this year as he was in 2024. He was a little scattered. But he’s working in a tough environment: Tampa’s game is off, and the offensive line is weakened by injuries. But despite these issues, Mayfield is playing the best ball of his career. He has already led the Bucs to four game-winning runs this season, and he leads the league in Big Time Throw Rate, according to Pro Football Focus. He does more with less, including a Seattle waltz with a rhythmic line and It fell 38 points On one of the best defenses in football (although he had a lot of injury issues to deal with).
In a time before advanced analytics, Mayfield was leading this year’s race. He has put his team on his back more than any other midfielder in times of crunch. Voters still value these things, but not to the same degree as they did in the 1990s and early 2000s.
MVP Probability: 4/10. His gambling style will lead him to throw away some matches.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Leaders
Daniels returned from injury against the Chargers on Sunday and reminded everyone why last season he was the most impressive rookie to enter the league in a generation. Daniels tore up the Chargers in the second half on the road, lifting the Leaders to a comfortable win in Los Angeles.
It wasn’t the smoothest start to his second season. The way the team of leaders was built around Daniels was strange. They tried to find success quickly, knowing they had achieved something special with a quarterback on a cheap rookie contract. But they were left with the oldest roster in the league by some distance. It shows, especially in defense.
In the medium term, Washington’s roster construction could hurt Daniels. But he remains a one-man supernova at the most valuable position in the game. He’s the closest quarterback in the league to Jackson: an accurate passer who’s also electric with the ball in his hands as a runner. If he can push the Leaders past the Eagles at the top of the NFC East in the next two years, he will be a lock for the award.
MVP prospect: 8/10. A player of his rookie class is guaranteed to win in the next three years.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Everything was going well for Herbert and the Chargers. Two weeks into the season, it felt like this was his year. Finally, the pieces around it were put into place. The Chargers have shifted to a Herbert-centric offense, transforming from a run-focused group to a passing group. It was as if Jim Harbaugh set out with the goal of winning the Herbert MVP Award as much as he was looking to topple the leaders in the AFC West.
That has changed. The Chargers have lost a lot of pieces along their offensive line. They dropped a winnable game against the Giants and were beaten on both sides of the line of scrimmage by captains. The degree of difficulty facing Herbert at this stage, this season, is very high. Even to keep the chains moving, he has to attach his superhero cape. That’s fun in small samples — and valuable for an MVP award when you’re in the national spotlight — but it’s not sustainable over the course of the regular season.
Herbert has MVP talent. When healthy, the Chargers are a favorite for the award among the players on this list. He fits the bill: new base, playmaking, winning. It passes the eye test and has a monopoly on some of the most impressive metrics. But it won’t be this year.
MVP Probability: 9/10. Ultimately, the Chargers will stay healthy, and Herbert will break through.
Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
The MVP award is a quarterback award — the last player outside of the quarterback position to win it was Adrian Peterson in the 2012 season. However, playing on both sides of the ball is a big help for anyone trying to upset the quarterback cartel.
It’s been an inauspicious start for Hunter as a two-way phenomenon. The Jags have bounced back and forth between using him primarily on offense and defense. Last week, they settled for a 40-shot rotation on both sides of the ball. That seems like the right number for a rookie trying to get up to speed in the pro game while learning a complex offense and the most camouflaged defense in the league.
Hunter was good as a rookie, but he wasn’t an immediate game-changer. There have been flashes of the talent that made him a Heisman winner, but he has yet to take over the game while playing both ways. At some point, the Jags may decide to use him on one side while only bringing him onto the field for select packages the other way. But that’s not the plan right now.
This may make Hunter’s development curve steeper, but it also increases his MVP potential. Who else can realistically get double-digit touchdowns as a receiver while also getting five or more takeaways? If Hunter realizes his Ohtani-like potential on both sides of the ball, voters will look beyond the quarterbacks.
MVP prospect. 5/10. The only “defensive” player with a sniff.
Drake May, New England Patriots
Maye entered the national spotlight with his performance on the road in Buffalo on Sunday. But he has been steadily putting together an MVP campaign all season.
The Patriots rank fourth in the league in passing efficiency this year. A lot of that has to do with the return of Josh McDaniels. The offensive coordinator has wide-open receivers everywhere. But it also speaks to May’s evolution. He reduced the number of farts his brain let out per game from four to two. He’s good at the easy stuff. When the offense breaks down and he’s asked to create on his own, he looks like a mini Josh Allen.
Advanced data paints it as The fourth most expensive midfielder In the league this season. It is difficult to disagree. Its accuracy has improved. Doesn’t throw objections. He can rip it all over the field and is a legitimate dual threat. Oh, and it does so with a mediocre offensive line, a group of running backs who constantly falter, and a plethora of receivers outside of Stefon Diggs.
This year may be a very early season. But the patriots He should Making the playoffs, given their start and the upcoming schedule. As they continue to add talent, Maye’s opportunities will grow.
Probability of getting MVP: 6/10. It works on Allen’s schedule.
The Tale of the Garou Kiwi, Cal
Substitution time. If Allen, Mahomes and Jackson continue to share the MVP award between them, the next first-time winner in the league may not be there yet.
Every year when the draft rolls around, prognosticators will tell fanbases not to worry about that year’s crop of shaky quarterback talent. Just wait until next year! Some organizations seem to always be waiting for the next influx of talented QBs.
Last year was no different, but the 2026 draft class has been disappointing so far. Arch Manning, Garrett Nussmeier and Lanoris Sellers, who were selected as top picks before the season, have struggled. There is no confirmed No. 1 pick, but rather a group of eight talented but flawed prospects that teams are considering at the top of the draft.
So let’s move further down the road. The most exciting quarterback in college this year is Sagapolutele, a true freshman at Cal. The Hawaiian transferred from Oregon State after losing the quarterback battle to Dante Moore — a potential future No. 1 pick — and already looks the part of a future franchise quarterback. A left-hander, Sagapolutele is the type of smart, assertive passer in the pocket that professional teams covet. He also happens to have a missile in his arm and is an explosive runner.
Sagapolutele won’t be eligible to enter the draft until 2028. That means he won’t be involved in real MVP conversations for at least five years, if he continues on his current path. But if he qualifies this year, he’ll be the favorite to take first place overall.
MVP Probability: 2/10. He’s just two years away and a lot can happen between college and the pros.