Global warming in the past decade, with average surface temperature in the world in 2024, exceeding 1.5 ° C levels of pre -industrial levels1. Although human activities, so far, were largely responsible2The factors behind the last registry temperatures should still be understood. Are human activities that inflame warming faster than scientists expect, or may natural changes in the Earth system have a stronger role than supposed? Researchers and policy makers need answers quickly.
To measure the causes and effects of climate change, the climate research community mainly depends on three types of information sources. First, typical simulations provide visions and predictions on time to one year to contracts, through initiatives such as the global model of the Climate Research Program (CMIP) (CMIP)3 And explain the activities of changing and predicting the Earth system4. Secret5. Third, climate challenges like Era5 (see go.nature.com/3hxepxf) And Merra-2 (see go.nature.com/41x7k24), Which accommodates historical notes in models, is widely used to monitor and research to understand how the Earth’s system developed.
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Although these analyzes and other analyzes carried out by the climate researchers use the latest notes, typical simulations tend to be delayed. The models are moved by the estimates of natural and human effects on the climate system on the ground – known as the impact data – that depend on analyzes of a wide range of notes, covering temperatures, greenhouse gases and more. Almost all the models of the Earth system use the same effects as the effect data, which are officially updated every five to seven years to support the successive stages of CMIP6. Thus, the inputs to lead the models depend on old or approximate data may not reflect the circumstances today.
There is an urgent need for the annual updates of the compulsion data groups to enable researchers to understand and explain the changes that are revealed in the climate of the world in a nearly real time7. Here, we and our shared posts (see supplementary information) have identified how it can be done.
Learn the need for speed
The data collections that you impose are designed using a variety of climate notes and the products derived from them (see supplementary information). Data groups include: greenhouse gas emissions and atmosphere; Evangelical gases concentrations and materials that deplete ozone; Air vanity launcher by volcanoes. In addition to the incoming solar radiation standards, land use changes, sea surface temperatures and marine ice. The resulting files in standard data format should be prepared and published on a stable and powerful platform. All this takes some time.
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Over the past decade, the production of data groups has become more coordinated. Before the fifth stage of CMIP (CMIP5; 2008-13), they were developed in a dedicated manner, most of which are internal in modeling centers. CMIP6 (2014-21) produced a system where data groups were developed by specialists elsewhere8. This work was collected in 2022 under the CMIP Forcing Mission (see go.nature.com/3jxaqgf) To support CMIP7 continuous9. Earlier this year, the latest Forces data collections were delivered10Most of them extend from 1850 to early 2020.
But climatic conditions can vary greatly over five to seven years, and are affected by volcanic explosions, large forest fires, even epidemics or political interventions. The annual updates of Forcing Data groups will comply better with simulations and typical observations. It is needed to advance in four areas to happen.
Safe and reliable notes
The continuous and strong observations are necessary for accurate and timely updates. Three procedures are needed. First, researchers and governments must promote and maintain the long -term global observation networks to ensure fixed coverage of climate -related variables. Second, institutions around the world must harmonize observation efforts, share data, enhance data availability and quality, and coordinate financing. Third, a sustainable source of financing for the long -term production of Forcing Data groups is needed, including increasing the current work on data formatting standards, quality standards, and documents that enhance powerful use.
Research balance and applications
The generation of Forcing data collections is a continuous process, including research and refinement before collecting and publishing the final products. Data collections contain a set of uses, from actual time applications such as air quality prediction and discovery of emissions, including those resulting from volcanic eruptions and forest fires, to comprehensive historical analyzes. Every use has different requirements.
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