To produce enough “critical minerals” such as copper, lithium and nickel to support the green energy transition, the mining industry needs to boost operations two- to five-fold worldwide by 2050.1. Geopolitical tensions, environmental damage and social conflicts will constrain this growth2. But there is another threat that needs more attention: climate change.
Extracting the minerals needed to address global warming will be increasingly hampered by the extreme weather conditions that accompany climate change.
There are thousands of important mineral mines in sensitive environments, including deserts in Africa, highlands in the Andes and coasts across the Asia-Pacific region. Mining areas are already exposed to hazards on a regular basis. In 2023 alone, wildfires forced Canadian mines to suspend operations, torrential rains flooded pits and cut off access roads in Australia, and ongoing drought in Chile threatened regional water supplies, mining operations and local communities.3.
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The costs of such damage are increasing as the planet warms. For example, over the past decade, heavy rainfall has resulted in losses of about A$3 billion (US$2 billion) in Australian copper mines (see Supplementary Information). Under “business as usual” production, without climate adaptation measures, the industry is expected to lose A$7.5 billion from heavy rainfall alone between now and 2050, the equivalent of 50,000 tonnes of copper that could be used for energy conversion technologies.
The consequences of mining disruptions will escalate across the global economy. Limited supplies will mean that the energy transition will be slower than expected. Mining communities and ecosystems will come under increasing pressure3. An energy transition that ignores these threats would risk deepening social divisions, undermining community confidence and jeopardizing long-term sustainability.
As the UN Climate Summit takes place in Belém, Brazil, we call for more investment and planning to strengthen the resilience of supply chains for critical minerals. Steps include conducting systematic reviews of exposure to climate risks, anticipating future risks, and improving management of mining sites and surrounding areas. To this end, we present four main strategies.
Filling data gaps
To measure risk, researchers first need to understand the mines themselves: where they are located, their size and landscape, as well as their production rates and physical inputs and outputs.4. Details of how assets, such as waste ‘tailing’ dams, are built are also essential for assessing the risk of catastrophic failure.5. However, all these details are documented for less than half of the mines, due to lack of reporting, the prevalence of small-scale operations, and commercial or regulatory barriers that limit transparency or standardization of data.4. Mining companies need to generate and share data (covering production quantities, mineral by-products, resource inputs, supply chains and asset construction, for example) to help researchers fill global data gaps.
The vulnerabilities of infrastructure networks in the face of climate risks must be assessed. Mines depend on water, fuel, electricity, railways, smelters, processing facilities and ports. In Chile, for example, copper production competes with the needs of communities and the environment in terms of water supply6. To map the environment, basic information must be collected on biodiversity, watershed hydrology, and long-term water quality trends. But again, such data and models are rare.
Over the coming decades, African mines will experience dozens of days exceeding thermal safety levels every year. Credit: Cynthia R. Mattonhoods/Bloomberg via Getty
Furthermore, the resilience of mining communities to extreme weather events or dam bursts, for example, must be assessed and adaptation plans made accordingly. People’s preparedness, strengths and cultural practices influence how risks are managed. Governance and economic systems, including the mining approval process, environmental monitoring, and health and safety standards, determine the extent to which risks can be anticipated and addressed. Public infrastructure, disaster planning and training can help people cope during emergencies.
Operators and researchers also need to consider how climate shapes and exacerbates risks to mines. Historical records of temperatures, precipitation, storms, and drought can reveal how risks actually shaped processes. Sharing lessons learned from previous adaptation actions across the industry can help mining sites prepare for future risks.
Looking ahead, climate models can be used to project extremes in rainfall and temperatures over the coming years and decades, even after the mine’s operating life has ended. Access to modeling capacity and monitoring data varies globally, often at the expense of low-income regions, which often lack the infrastructure needed to monitor and forecast weather7.
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Compiling all this knowledge, which can be challenging even for a single mine, requires more than just accessible data sets. Information is fragmented across governments, companies, communities and researchers, and spans disciplines ranging from climate science and engineering to logistics and social sciences. These silos hamper resilience in the mining industry, according to UNEP reports3 And the International Finance Corporation8 (Part of the World Bank Group).
The solution is integration: connecting across climate and risk science, engineering, operations, governance, communities, and ecosystems9. Independent scientists must be integrated into mining company operations to ensure climate data is communicated effectively. Mine operators also need to engage with local communities for adaptation planning.
It is necessary to build common platforms, develop common indicators, and ensure equitable access to expertise. This will require more funding for climate scientists in industry, and for mining companies to build community resilience into their sustainability practices. The first step is for researchers and the mining industry to conduct a joint analysis of site-specific climate risks.
Address known risks
Although issues related to company reporting limit the extent to which researchers can evaluate the entire biominerals sector8The information already available points to troubling patterns that require action. It is clear that financing is needed to help the mining sector adapt to the threats posed by climate change.
To capture the risks, we examined climate projections for a representative set of 1,642 medium and large mines around the world that produce minerals needed for energy transition technology (see Supplementary Information for analysis). Sites were drawn from the International Council on Mining and Metallurgy’s public database, and climate data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Coupled Modeling Project.10.
Heat is one problem (see “Too hot for me”). By 2050, 90% of mining sites are expected to experience increasing temperatures. The number of days considered hazardous to human health annually (with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius) will increase, especially in areas that already suffer from extreme heat, such as remote areas in Australia, Africa, and the Amazon Basin.
Analysis by T. Savige et al.
For example, South Africa is the world’s leading producer of manganese (used in lithium-ion batteries), accounting for 37% of global supply. Most manganese mines in the central and northern parts of the country are expected to experience more than 80 days per year above 35°C by 2050.
Health and safety measures will be needed to reduce heat-related illnesses for workers, such as reducing shift durations or limiting outdoor work during peak heat. This will reduce production, unless adaptation strategies are put in place or other mines are operated elsewhere.
Generally, storms and heavy rain are also expected to increase. By 2050, annual precipitation levels are expected to rise in three out of five (62%) of the locations we examined, particularly mines across the Central Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and northern Argentina, including areas historically thought to be water-scarce.
Flash floods may also curtail mining operations (see “Flood Vulnerability”). Almost all locations we examined (94%) will see an increase in their maximum one-day precipitation. Vanadium mines in China are particularly vulnerable, facing an average of 16% increase in maximum precipitation per day. China imports about 70% of the world’s vanadium, which is used in grid storage batteries and high-strength steel, and a large portion of it comes from the suburbs of the city of Panzhihua.
Source: Analysis by T. Savige et al.
More detailed research is needed to form the basis for adaptation plans. Predicting climate risks is a local challenge, and climate models must be constantly updated with the latest data, scaled appropriately to account for terrain, and grounded in site-specific knowledge to produce the most accurate predictions possible for each location.7. The depth of knowledge required requires stronger links between researchers and mining companies. Sustaining this across the sector will require research funding and international collaboration, as well as building partnerships with community groups.
Sufficient financing is available: The mine can attract billions of dollars in investment before it achieves a return. If adaptation research received funds amounting to a modest proportion of the industry’s expected losses due to climate change, it could reduce damage costs and operational downtime for mining companies and protect the energy transition.
Include climate risk assessments
Governments and mining companies need to adapt to how mines operate. This means integrating climate knowledge into every stage: exploration, planning, construction, production, closure and rehabilitation.
For example, the Escondida mine, located high in Chile’s arid Atacama Desert, produces about 5% of the global copper supply and is expected to remain in operation until 2080. To ensure its water supply, Escondida has invested US$3.4 billion in a desalination plant that produces 215,000 cubic meters of water per day, transported from the coast to the mine (see go.nature.com/49e9hyd).