The results of the elections on Tuesday in the state of Wisconsin and Florida were not less than a catastrophic of the Republican Party. On Sunday, I books“[President Donald] Trump maintains his forces in the queue because they believe that his support will give them the best opportunity to win his re -election in 2026. What happens if it is closely related to Trump that makes it unlikely to survive? “
We are about to know what is happening.
In Wisconsin, Democrats won the state’s Supreme Court race By 10 percentage pointsIf Trump won it About 1 point In 2024, in the sense that the conservative court candidate ran 11 points behind Trump, although Elon Musk Significant spending In the race.
Meanwhile, in special elections in the House of Representatives in Florida, Republicans were less than Trump’s margins for 2024 by 16 points in the sixth Florida region (Who won 30 points) and 22 points in the first Florida, where Trump won 37 points.
How important are these margins?
If the Democrats had achieved 10 points in the Senate races in 2024, the Democratic Senator Bob Casey had survived in Pennsylvania (lost 0.2 pointsSenator Shirud Brown had survived in Ohio (lost 3.6 points), Democracy-independent nest Dan Osborn had defeated the Republic, Deeb Fisher in Nebraska (lost 6.7 pointsSenator John Ter survived in Montana (lost 7.1 pointsDemocrat Colin Alared will invade the Senator Texas Ted Cruz (lost 8.5 points).
Add all of this, and Democrats will currently enjoy the majority of the Senate 52-48.
He kicked up to 15 performance points, and the Democrats had received seats in Florida (we lost before 12.8 pointsMissouri (we lost before 13.7 points). We will be at 54-46.
Looking at 2026 Map of the SenateRepublicans again have an advantage on paper. Democrats must defend difficult seats in Georgia and Michigan, with no clear opportunities for Beck August outside the state of Min and North Carolina. We need to get four seats for the majority, a difficult suggestion … unless we see the same type of margin attack.
In 2020, Republican Senator Johnny Ernst from Iowa, IIA, won the second Senate with her 52 % of the vote Democratic candidate is 45 %. Iowa has tended to Democrats in recent years, but given Significant These definitions will get the state, you never know what will happen.
Florida will hold special elections for the seat that Marco Rubio, who was exploited by Trump to be the Foreign Minister. Looking at the weak republican performance in these two special elections, something may be fermented here. The seat is currently running Appointed Ashley Modi.
In Texas, the current Republican Senator John Corn won his last race in 2020 – with Trump at the top of the ticket –By 9.6 points. Texas will be among the states The most difficult to hit the definitions.
Ohio will witness special elections to replace the Vice President JD Vance, who won the Senate Race 2022 By 6.1 points. Can Brown be seduced by running again? There is no word yet His intentionsWhich can also include operation for the ruler.
Likewise, can Democrats set a Tester to run again in 2026? The current Republican, Steve Denz, won in 2020 10 points. But as an agricultural border country, Montana will strike hard with definitions and deportation.
In the House of Representatives, there were 43 Republicans who won in 2024 Less than 15 points– And 15 of them with less than 5 points. In tsunami, this is just a less fruit.
It is clear that it is early, and we cannot extrapolate special elections on April 1 the next The general elections in November, which will have a greater turnout. In addition, Democrats Good performance in many special elections Before the general elections 2024. But there is one difference from then and now – it will not be Trump in the upper part of the ticket anymore, and historically, the party in power He suffers from severe losses. Democrats have largely avoided that curse in 2022, but nothing indicates that Republicans will have similar luck next year.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
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