After a month full of events, Trump was supported in the preparatory elections of the Republican Party

Again, with feeling: Two weeks have passed since the last accusation list of President Donald Trump (this time in Georgia, regarding his efforts to cancel the 2020 elections there). Does it seem that the charges have affected his chances of returning to the White House?

After Trump’s previous accusation regulations, his polling numbers changed in small and inconsistent ways – if they change at all. The fourth indictment followed this style: some evidence indicates that he gained land in the Republican preliminary elections, other evidence indicates that he lost it, and what are the small general elections data that we suggest to something that did not turn significantly. In addition to frustration with politicians ’addicts everywhere, it is extremely difficult to know the extent of the fourth insurance that affected Trump’s position in the race, given the extent of his proximity to two main events on the campaign’s path: the third indictment and the The presidential debate is the Republican Party.

Let’s take a deeper look at the national opinion polls of the republican pre -elections. There were 29 of those who were completely conducted yet The fourth indictment news broke out Late at night on August 14, Trump fell from 53 percent in our average survey to 50 percent since then. But the indictment in Georgia came in the wake of another large group of charges: On August 1, a large federal jury accused the alleged intervention in the 2020 elections. Only five groups of opinion polls and sponsors were held both opinion polls between the indictment (August 1 and August 14) and after Georgia (since August 14).

“>>² This is important because although we can theoretically compare, for example, Emerson College 16-17 August for him June 19-20It will be impossible to say that Trump’s 3 -degree decrease is due to the indictment of Georgia. It could have been due to the third indictment, or any other group of events that occurred during these two months.

After that, to make things more complicated, only two of the post -joining polls concluded before the Republican Presidential discussion on August 23, which could have changed Trump’s views. These are different from the extent of the race to turn after the indictment. according to Morning consultationTrump’s national support among potential elementary voters barely joking, from 57 percent to 58 percent. But according to a hypothesis, Trump has already strengthened his numbers among Republican registered voters during this period, from 54 percent to 60 percent.

This is not what we see when we look at the average Trump support, which decreased – but it may be related to the discussion, which Trump rejected the audience. According to three pairs of opinion polls

“>>⁴ The first half that was presented after the indictment was presented, but before the discussion, which was presented by the second half after the discussion, Trump’s national support decreased by 4 points on average. In addition, a Fivethirtyeight/Washington Post/IPSOS poll Used using Knowledge’s Knowledge’s iPSOS that 5 percent of potential voters from Republican who saw the discussion were thinking about voting for Trump before that, but not after that, making him the only candidate who loses a great deal of potential support.

The fourth indictment does not seem to have changed many minds among public voters as well. The morning and hypothesis consulting was the only opinion polls who were asking about a virtual match for the general elections between Trump and President Biden during our interests of interest (1-14 August for survey, 15-23 August for survey after the survey). According to a hypothesis, registered voters Trump preferred 4 points before the indictment and after 5 points after that – not a statistically important shift. According to the morning consultations, the results were the same (Biden 43 percent, Trump 41 percent) before and after the Georgia accusation regulations.

One of the most prominent opinion polls/IPSOS/ABC News asked about Trump’s favorable and unfavorable classifications in general before and after the indictment. in Their poll 2-3 AugustIt was considered 30 percent of American adults positively, and 59 percent watched it undoubtedly. And in them August 15-16 Poll, 31 percent watched him positively and 55 percent of them watched it inadvertently. This seems to be an improvement, but it was within the margin of error in the survey, so it may be just noise.

Three polls worth three polls were held 15 months before the elections are not the last word on Trump’s fate in the Public Opinion Court. The case against Trump in Georgia (in fact, all his accusation regulations) can hurt or help him more with the continuation of time, especially if he is convicted or exonerated before the elections. This entire exercise can also be flawed, given that “before” surveys in this analysis came within two weeks of Trump’s third accusation; Perhaps the number of Trump surveys of this period was already suffered by depression due to these (similar) allegations.

But given the big image – including Fivethirtyeight in the National Republican introductory elections and Trump’s favorable and non -favorable classifications in general – it is clear that public opinion about Trump has not changed in a large way for several months, even after accusing him of nearly 100 criminal charges in four different judicial states. After his final indictment is expected, he remains a strong favorite in the preparatory elections of the Republican Party and competitive candidate in the general elections.

Correction (August 31, 2023, 8:37 am): A previous version of this article stated incorrectly that the support of former President Donald Trump in the average national voting of Republicans was 50 percent when the news of his accusation erupted in Georgia on August 14. In fact, it was 53 percent.