Russian President Vladimir Putin spent the week in China, where he publicly attended and aligned with Xi Jinping. Alexander Gabov, director of the Carnegie Carnegie Eurasia Center, explains the importance of this matter against the United States and Ukraine.
Scott Detro, host:
In addition to his focus on Chicago, President Trump moved to social media this week to spread global policy as well. He wrote, quoted, “We have lost India and Russia to the deepest and darkest China.” This comes very week in China, where leaders of these two countries and about twenty others attended a summit and a military parade.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was present, and as the images were equipped throughout the world of Putin and Shi Jinping the handshake, European leaders announced a plan to defend Ukraine from future invasions in the event of a ceasefire. But the Russian forces continue to bomb Ukraine.
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President Vladimir Putin: (He speaks Russian).
“They will be legitimate targets,” Putin said. Putin said yesterday about Western forces if they would appear in Ukraine. To get an insight into Putin’s accounts and why this week is to forge closer relationships with China’s issues of the United States and Ukraine, Alexander Gabov, director of the Carnegie Russia Center, has now joined us. Welcome.
Alexander Gabov: Thank you for hosting me, Scott.
Detrow: What did the pictures tell you? I mean, these peaks – a lot of meetings happen, there are many decisions taken, but sometimes the most common thing is just pictures. We have seen Putin, Xi and other world leaders from North Korea and India stood warmly with each other, talking to each other and then looking at this huge military parade in China. What has emerged for you?
Gabuev: First of all, if anyone in the West wants to think that Putin is isolated, then search again in all these pictures. He embraces Shi Jinping. He embraces the most popular prime minister of democracy in the world – India – a great welcome. After that, the side of Xi Jinping is located, sitting next to his right side. And being at all times the relative shows that among these leaders who welcome Shi Jinping, he is definitely the most welcoming and largest leader among China’s novice partners.
Detrow: As I said, Russia and China had a closer relationship than other countries in recent years. Putin feels comfortable there. How much is this relationship, to what extent has this partnership changed in the past few years since the war began in Ukraine?
Gabuev: I think this relationship was useful mutual, and a truly long -term wave but is increasingly asymmetric. This is what the war has changed about this relationship – it is now not consistent with the stimulants, as China has more influence and has all the cards that Russia is not really doing.
Detrow: Is this only economically and military, other factors?
Gabuev: I think, first of all, it’s economically. China provides 40 % of Russian imports, both civil needs and Russian military needs, and all goods with double use. All the equipment Russia needs to manufacture its weapons that it uses then to kill the Ukrainians comes from China. The financial lifeline, the Chinese yuan use to pay the price of these things and the use of Yuan to trade with other countries because Russia cannot reach the US dollar, the euro or the British pound. Then technology – Russia is technologically underdeveloped, and certainly does not have the advanced technology that China can only provide.
Detrow: Given everything you just said, what do you think of Putin’s goal during the past week? What do you think of his priorities when he looks at the relationship between Russia from Russia’s point of view?
Gabuev: Vladimir Putin is one of the survivors, so keeping China is close, maintaining happiness in China and making sure that China continues to provide this level of support that they have done throughout this war is very important to him. For me, it seems that he got it because Xi Jinping is also interested in the presence of Russia as a novice partner, one of the assets in this long -term confrontation with the United States.
The second point, which is also important for Putin, is really a picture of a strong man treated by leaders like Xi Jinping and Modi. Chinese leaders know that the Russians have very severe wounds, and they are happy to massage this ego and show all the plays of symbolic equality, while, at the same time, being president of the relationship.
Detrow: Why do the relationship between China and Russian matters to the United States?
Gabuev: I think in the objective world, Russia is an important player that is not very easy to oppose. People can say, like, yes, its economy – the size of Spain. It is just a giant gas tank with nuclear weapons. But if you look at geography, if you look at the amount of nuclear weapons, this is not a country that you can simply oppose. So if these two powers are closely agreed against you, this is not good.
The problem is what you do about it, and it seems that President Trump has this idea that he can create space for Mr. Putin to stay away from the embrace of China and may become the American team, which will not happen because Vladimir Putin does not really trust the American leadership. He knows that President Trump may be outside the photo in 3/2 years, after the upcoming elections. He is very skeptical of the American leadership, and he feels comfortable with an authoritarian leader like Shi like Shi Jinping more than any American president, including Donald Trump.
Detrow: Given this, did you pick up any specific message to the United States and the West from these meetings, from these marches, from these gatherings?
GABUEV: I think Xi Jinping wanted to send a message that there is an alternative that does not depend on the rules written by America but based on international law, which is ridiculous because we know that, well, the United States is not innocent of the violation of the United Nations Charter, but its guest in honor, Vladimir Putin, violates flagrantly not a charter for everyone. Then, China does not deal with the obligations of the United Nations Treaty very seriously when it comes to its marine disputes with neighbors such as the Philippines. However, this message to the global south is that there is an alternative with China, which exists.
Then the second message is that China can become more friendly with all countries that have been isolated by Donald Trump through the war of definitions. The rapprochement between India and China is a very good example here.
Detro: Alexander Gabov, director of the Carnegie Carnegie Russia Center, thank you very much for speaking to us.
Gabov: Thank you very much.
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