Monday night’s College Football Playoff national championship game between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami is shaping up as a grueling, physical battle between two teams that have embraced that identity all season. The undefeated Hoosiers are trying to become college football’s first national champion at 16-0, but they must get past a surging Hurricanes team playing at home.
Miami’s road has not been easy at all. The Cyclones took down No. 7 Texas A&M on the road, eliminated No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and edged No. 6 Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl to reach the title game. Bolstered by a massive offensive line, Miami creates running lanes for Mark Fletcher Jr., while quarterback Carson Beck distributes the ball to elite playmakers like Malachi Toney, giving the Hurricanes a balanced and efficient offense.
First-year defensive coordinator Corey Heatherman has elevated Miami’s defense into one of the best in the country, bringing fourth-year coach Mario Cristobal’s vision of a big, punishing roster to life. However, the question remains whether that physicality will be enough to test Indiana.
The Hoosiers have beaten everyone in their path, blasting No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl and dismantling No. 5 Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl. With Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza at the controls and no obvious weaknesses on the roster, Indiana enters as more than a relegation favorite.
Second-year coach Curt Cignetti orchestrated one of the most remarkable turnovers in college football history, putting Indiana on the brink of its first national championship.
Keys to victory in the CFP National Championship: How can Indiana win? | How can Miami win?
Where to watch Miami vs. Indiana
date: Monday, January 19 | time: 7:30 PM ET
location: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida.
television: espn | Live broadcast: Fubo (Try for free)
Miami vs. Indiana picks for the CFP National Championship
Tom Fornelli: At what point does everyone start listening to what Indiana has been telling them all season? He beat Alabama and Oregon in back-to-back playoff games and entered the tournament in much better shape than the Miami Hurricanes did health-wise. I don’t expect us to see a Rose and Peach Bowls-style blowout, but I do expect the outcome to be clear before the fourth quarter begins. Select: Indiana – 8.5 | Indiana 31, Miami 13
Chip Patterson: I think Miami has the defense to be able to limit what Fernando Mendoza can do by pushing the ball deep down the field and also a better rushing attack than Ohio State, which shouldn’t help with the lack of botched red zone opportunities like the Buckeyes did in the Big Ten title game. The Hoosiers’ efficiency and effectiveness should keep them in control for most of the game, but the playmaking potential should give Miami enough great play to keep it interesting. As long as Miami executes its scoring chances, it has a chance to win, but I have Indiana (best red zone defense by TD% in the country) winning these key plays to emerge as 16-0 national champions. Pick: Indiana -8.5 | Indiana 30, Miami 20
Brandon Marcelo: Miami remains the most physical and aggressive team remaining in the playoffs. Indiana State has been unbreakable all season, even in close games against Penn State and Iowa, but this Hurricanes team is relentless along the offensive and defensive lines. The problem for Miami is that it still doesn’t fully trust quarterback Carson Beck to throw deep, which leads to more downfield throws. Even against Ole Miss, the drive stalled in the second half when the Hurricanes got away from running the ball with Mark Fletcher Jr. Indiana’s offense gets a lot of attention with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, but it’s the defense that wins games. I trust both midfielders in two-minute situations, but Mendoza protects the ball and Beck is unpredictable. This will be a slugfest at times, but Indiana will pull away to make this the eighth straight title game where the champion wins by double digits. Pick: Indiana -8.5 | Indiana 31, Miami 21
John Talty: Indiana has been the better team all season. They are elite offensively and defensively. They have the best coaching staff in America. They have my favorite curmudgeon in the sport. I’ve been riding with the Hoosiers since the spring, and I’m not stopping now. What had previously seemed unbelievable would become reality: Indiana became a national champion. Pick: Indiana -8.5 | Indiana 34, Miami 20
Shehan Jayaraja: Indiana has been a perfect football team in 2025, and will end up with its elusive first national championship. It won’t come easy. Miami’s top-rated defensive line will force fouls, including at least one turnover from Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. However, Mendoza’s legend would be cemented with a fourth-quarter touchdown to freeze the game and give the Hoosiers an unlikely title. Select: Indiana – 8.5 | Indiana 27, Miami 17
David Cope: Miami’s offensive line is strong enough to keep Indiana’s defensive front from being completely dominant, which is essential if the Hurricanes hope to stay within striking distance. On the other hand, Miami has enough offensive firepower — led by Robin Payne Jr. and Akeem Mesidor — to make the Hoosiers uncomfortable at times. Ultimately, Indiana looks like the team of destiny and should win outright. But Miami is capable of turning this into a fight. Pick: Miami +8.5 | Indiana 27, Miami 20
Richard Johnson: Indiana will get the job done largely on the strength of its defense. With all the post-snap moves and zone drops that Indiana is incorporating into their defense, I expect Carson Beck to eventually get fooled and give the Hoosiers some interceptions. That’s all they’ll need to outlast Miami and tip the scales in their favor with the extra possessions. It’s also the path that can really send the game out of control. Pick: Indiana -8.5 | Indiana 34, Miami 17
Chris Hammer: Miami plays the national championship game at home. What a story. What an opportunity. What a moment. The Hurricanes can’t lose, right? Well…here comes Indiana. It’s ridiculous to write that with Indiana being 15-0. It’s Indiana! History tells us that’s not possible, but Curt Cignetti created a monster in Bloomington. They are the most trained, most disciplined and best team in the country. Plus, they have a Heisman Trophy-winning QB, and if you talk to coaches about the sport, you have a roster that matches anyone’s athletically. As crazy as I feel writing, I’m picking Indiana to win the National Championship. How can I not? Maybe Miami will find more magic at home. But this was Indiana’s season. As long as Indiana’s line can hold on the edges, it wins this game. Pick: Miami +8.5 | Indiana 24, Miami 21
Who will win and cover Indiana vs. Miami? SportsLine’s computer model has simulated the college football national championship game 10,000 times and predicts one side will be covered more than 50% of the time. Visit SportsLine to find out who he is.