Everyone has looked at the clouds and seen faces and animals and things. Human brains are Standing still For this kind of whimsy. But some people – maybe a Surprising number – Look to the sky and see government conspiracies and evil deeds written there. Conspiracy theorists say so Jets The long streaks of condensate left behind by airplanes are actually chemical trails, clouds of chemical or biological agents dumped on the unsuspecting public for nefarious purposes. Various motives are attributed, from weather control to mass poisoning.
The theory of chemtrails has spread Since 1996When conspiracy theorists misinterpreted a US Air Force research paper on… Weather adjustmenta suitable topic for research. Since then, social media and conservative media have amplified the conspiracy theory. One recent study suggests that X, formerly known as Twitter, is a A particularly active node From this “vast online conspiracy community”.
I am a communications researcher Studies conspiracy theories. The completely debunked chemtrails theory provides a textbook example of how conspiracy theories work.
Boosted into the stratosphere
Conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, whose podcast Averaged over a million viewers For each episode, He was recently interviewed Dane Wiggington, a long-time opponent of what he calls “Geological engineeringWhile the interview was going on On a large scale Lost its credibility And ridiculed in other media, it is just one example of the dramatic rise in belief in chemtrail.
Although chemtrail belief extends across the political spectrum, it is particularly evident in Republican circles. US Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr He announced his support For theory. US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia Written legislation To prohibit chemical weather control, and Many state legislatures I did the same thing.
Online influencers with Millions of followers They promoted what was previously a fringe theory to a large audience. It finds a ready audience among climate change deniers and anti-deep state agitators who fear government control of their minds.
Heads I win, tails you lose
Although research on weather modification is real,… The overwhelming majority to eligible Experts He denies that the chemtrail theory has any solid basis in reality. For example, a researcher in geological engineering David KeithDeployment Lab A Explicit statement On its website. A wealth of other resources He comes out On the Internet, many of their findings are published in Contrailscience.com.
But even without delving into the science, chemtrail theory suffers from glaring logical problems. Two of them Susceptibility to falsification And stinginess.
According to the psychologist Rob Brotherton“Conspiracy theories are classic”Heads I win, heads you lose“Structure. Conspiracy theorists say that the chemical compounds are part of a nefarious government conspiracy, but their existence has been covered up by the same bad guys. If there was any evidence that weather modification was actually happening, that would support the theory, but any evidence that disproves the chemical compounds also supports the theory – specifically, the part that claims a cover-up.”
People who subscribe to a conspiracy theory consider anyone who confirms it to be a brave whistleblower and anyone who denies it to be foolish, evil, or a hired hand. Therefore, no amount of information can theoretically disprove this for true believers. This denial makes the theory Unforgeablemeaning it is impossible to refute. In contrast, good theories are not only wrong, but must also be constructed in such a way that the evidence proves that they are wrong.
Unfalsifiable theories are inherently suspect because they exist in a closed loop of self-confirmation. In practice, theories are not usually considered “false” based on a single test, but are taken more or less seriously depending on the result Preponderance of good evidence and scientific consensus. This approach is important because conspiracy theories and misinformation often claim to falsify prevailing theories, or at least to Exploiting misunderstandings What is the meaning of certainty in scientific methods?
Like most conspiracy theories, the chemtrail story tends not to meet the criteria for a conspiracy Stinginessalso known as Occam’s razor, which states that the more assumptions a theory requires to be true, the less likely it is to actually be true. while Not perfectThis concept can be an important way to think about probability When it comes to conspiracy theories. Is it more likely that the government is covering up a massive weather program, a mind control program, or both involving thousands or millions of silent, complicit agents, from local weather reporters to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or that we are seeing ice crystals from aircraft engines?
Of course, calling something a “conspiracy theory.” It does not automatically invalidate it. After all, real conspiracies do exist. But it is important to remember scientists and science communicators Carl Sagan‘s aphorism “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” In the case of chemtrailsThe evidence is not there.
The psychology of belief in conspiracy theories
If the evidence against it is so strong and the logic so weak, why do people believe the chemtrail conspiracy theory? As I say in my new book:Post-estrangement: fragmentation, community, and the decline of the mainstreamConspiracy theorists create connections with each other through shared practices of interpreting the world, seeing every detail and scraps of evidence as unwavering signs of a hidden larger meaning.
suspicionThe mystery and chaos can be overwhelming. Conspiracy theories are symptoms of, and attempts at Dealing with anxiety Caused by feelings of helplessness in a chaotic and complex world where Horrible things Like hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires can occur seemingly randomly for reasons that are difficult for knowledgeable people to understand. When people feel overwhelmed and helpless, they create fantasies about it Giving the illusion of mastery and control.
Although there are liberal chemtrail believers, an aversion to uncertainty may explain why the theory is so popular with Carlson’s audience: long Argue Right-wing authoritarian beliefs have a similar basic structure.
On some level, chemtrail theorists would rather be the targets of an evil conspiracy than confront the limits of their knowledge and power, despite conspiracy beliefs. Not entirely satisfactory. Sigmund Freud described a fort da (“He Went Here”) A game played by his grandson in which he throws a toy and pulls it back by a string, something Freud interpreted as a simulation of control when the child has none. Conspiracy theories may serve a Similar purposeallowing their believers to feel that the world is not truly random and that they, those who see through the charade, truly have some control over it. The greater the conspiracy, the more intelligent and heroic the conspiracy theorists.
The plots are dramatic and exciting, with clear lines of good and evil, while real life is sometimes boring and scary. Chemtrail theory is finally proud. It is a way for theorists to feel powerful and intelligent when they encounter things beyond their understanding and control. Conspiracy theories come and go, but responding to them in the long term means finding better ways to embrace uncertainty, ambiguity, and our limits along with a new embrace of conspiracy theories. The tools we haveLogic, evidence, and even humility.
This article was republished from Conversationan independent, non-profit news organization bringing you trustworthy facts and analysis to help you understand our complex world. Written by: Callum Lester Matheson, University of Pittsburgh
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Callum Lister Matheson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond his academic appointment.