The consumer price index in July increased by 2.7 % on an annual basis, and was slightly cooler than economists.
In numbers
The consumer price index was expected to increase by 2.8 % last month, according to the economists included in FactSet FactSet.
On a monthly monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.2 %, in line with economists’ expectations.
The consumer price index, a basket of goods and services that are usually purchased by consumers, tracks the change in prices on daily elements such as food and clothes over time. To date this year, inflation has remained 3 % or less, with Reading CPI June In 2.7 %, above The annual goal is 2 % federal.
The so -called basic inflation, a consumer price scale or index that excludes food and energy prices (the most volatile), has increased by 3.1 % over the past 12 months, which is the highest level in five months. Economists signed by the poll by FactSet by 3 % increase for this measure.
Food enlargement continues
The total food prices in July increased by 0.2 % from the previous month, and 2.9 % during the past year. The grocery cost last month increased by 0.1 % since June and 2.2 % on an annual basis.
The data comes as half of the Americans say Grocery he The main source of tension In their lives at the present time, while 33 % say it is a “secondary” source of tension, according to the survey survey from the Associated Press Nor for Public Affairs Research. Only 14 % says it is not a source of tension, which confirms the widespread anxiety of most Americans who feel about the cost of daily food.
Daily nutrients that saw a significant increase in costs in July include coffee, an increase of 2.6 % from June and 14.8 % of 2024. crushed cows, increased by 2.4 % of June and 11.5 % of 2024. In a positive note, egg prices decreased by 3.4 % of June, but were still 16.4 % higher than it was in July last year.
Eating abroad continues to grow more expensive, as restaurant prices in July increased by 0.3 % than the previous month and 3.9 % since 2024. The data comes as fast food restaurants continue to report a decrease in traffic, such as high prices Pay consumers away. Wendy, for example, reduced its sales expectations Last weekNoting the increase in competition and economic uncertainty at its customer base.
Fast food chains such as Wendy’s are competing for the attention of low -income consumers who have retracted from eating concerns about the economy. According to the May study of BankrateAmong the families with less than $ 50,000 a year, 44 % say they expect to spend less on eating abroad more than last year.
“The low -income consumer is still under pressure.”
Meanwhile, gasoline prices decreased by 0.5 % from June and 9.5 % from July 2024, and consumer price index data appears.
What experts say about the impact of definitions
Economists were closely watching to determine how to target definitions to consumer price index data. During the first few months of the year, the effect seemed limited, but June reading He pointed out that the fees may begin to increase prices in certain groups such as clothes, household furnishings and devices.
Goods from more than 60 countries and the European Union are now subject to A new round of mutual definitions It started into effect on August 7.
The numbers received from the CPI report today indicate that although the prices of some imported goods such as shoes and furniture have risen from June to July, the cost of the cheapest gas compensates for some of the effects of President Donald Trump.
“There are some signs of the passage of customs tariffs to consumer prices, but at this stage it is not important to give up the warning bells,” Sima Shah, the chief major asset management strategy, said in an e -mail to CBS News after the CPI report.
During a call with the media yesterday, Alan Dimyster, an UBS economist, said that the investment bank expects consumers to start seeing the direct effects of definitions this year or early next year.
Dimyster said: “These increases may be caused by the prices resulting from the identification tariff are a single -time shock at the price level that will start to decrease in early next year,” Dimyster said. “We think they will be more permanent.”
Detmeister expects to reach CPI Core and Headline CPI in the second quarter of 2026, with the main CPI by 3.7 % and the basic CPI by 3.8 %.
What can mean inflation data to reduce the federal reserve rate
With the consumer price index in July to an annual rate of 2.7 %, inflation remains higher than the Federal Reserve targeting rate by 2 %, however, most analysts say the possibility of reducing the federal reserve rate in September is still on the table.
“Although the basic annual inflation has returned to its highest levels since February, CPI print today is not hot enough to get the Federal Reserve out of the cut rates in September,” Shah said.
The last job report showed this Employment slowed in JulyWhich can enhance the issue to reduce the federal reserve rate.
The Federal Reserve State is to maintain the maximum employment, while maintaining prices. Otherwise, the country It can slip into the so -called stagnation It is when the high inflation is associated with high unemployment.
More economic data is expected – in the form of a consumer price and job index report – next month, which will reach the central bank’s decision.
FactSet gives 88 % possibility to reduce average at the meeting, which is scheduled to be held from September 16 to 17.
He contributed to this report.