On the Week 7 edition of “Sunday Night Football,” the San Francisco 49ers host the Atlanta Falcons.
San Francisco enters this matchup having lost two of its last three games. The 49ers start backup quarterback Mac Jones, who will make his fifth appearance in seven games in place of Brock Purdy. The Niners got somewhat healthier with the return of star tight end George Kittle, but they also remained scrappy on both sides of the ball thanks to numerous injuries to their offensive linemen and the dual losses of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner on defense. They’re in first place in the NFC West right now, but they’re also at risk of falling behind due to their health issues.
Atlanta is coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season, defeating the Bills on Monday night. The Falcons, who improved to 3-2 with the win, are backed by a surprisingly effective defense complemented by a running game led by Bijan Robinson. Atlanta is looking forward to Keep up in the NFC South With the Buccaneers at 5-1, he needs to continue piling up wins in order to do so.
Will the Niners bounce back, or will the Falcons pull off another upset? We’ll find out soon enough. But before we break down the match, here’s a look at how to watch the match.
Where to watch 49ers vs. Falcons
- date: Sunday 19 October | time: 8:20 PM ET
- location: Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, California
- television: nbc | flow: Fubo (Try for free)
- He follows: CBS Sports app
- probability: 49ers -2.5; O/U 47.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bet on 49ers vs. Buccaneers and other NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbookwhere new users get $300 in additional bets and three free months NBA League corridor.
When the Falcons have the ball
Atlanta’s offense has strong overall numbers – the Falcons rank second in NFL in total yards per game — but he was inconsistent and also struggled to score. The Falcons’ 20 points per game is sixth-lowest in the league.
A lot of that is because they were shut out in Week 3 against the Panthers, but they’ve also been inconsistent in areas where you need to be consistent in order to score: They’ve converted just seven of their 16 red zone trips into touchdowns, giving them the sixth-lowest red zone conversion rate in the league. They instead relied somewhat on big plays to create end zone trips: Robinson’s touchdowns of 50 yards or more accounted for 20% of Atlanta’s total offensive scores.
Michael Penix Jr. has been the main source of inconsistency. He was awful in that game against Carolina, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt and throwing a pair of interceptions. He didn’t play well against the Vikings in Week 2 either. But he did well in the matchup with Baker Mayfield in Week 1, looked good except for the interception against the Chiefs in Week 4, and handled himself well last week against the Bills. Depending on what type of Penix you get on any given week, that could go a long way toward determining what Atlanta’s offense looks like.
However, the foundation of the offense remains the running game. Robinson has finally added explosive plays to go along with his sparkling efficiency, and is now averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the year. Among the 36 backs with 50-plus carries, Robinson ranks seventh in rushing success rate, via Tru Media, as well as second in the share of his runs that gained five or more yards (44.6%) and first in both tackle rate avoided and yards after contact per attempt.
The 49ers rank 19th in rush success rate allowed, according to Tru Media, but have done a good job of limiting yards after contact thanks mostly to strong tackling. If they can keep Robinson to moderate gains instead of allowing big chunks when he comes off tackles, they will have a chance to contain the rushing attack somewhat.
With Warner out, the area over the middle of the field should be easier to attack in the passing game. This is an area the Falcons like to attack in spades, especially with Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. We don’t know yet if Darnell Mooney, who missed last week’s game, will play after being limited in practice all week. London will likely be targeted heavily either way, but if Mooney is out, it could be an empty-net goal as was the case with Penix when the No. 2 receiver missed time.
San Francisco ranks 30th in opponents’ pass success rate, so the Falcons should have some opportunities to pass through the air here.
When the 49ers have the ball
Atlanta’s defense has been one of the biggest surprises this season.
Expected to be one of the worst units in NFLInstead, the Falcons were one of the best. They log in first in yards allowed per game, seventh in points allowed per game, first in FTN’s DVOA (defense adjusted value above average) and tied for fifth in Tru Media’s EPA per game. Basically, they were a clear top-five unit.
The unit’s strength has been against the pass, as the Falcons have allowed the third-lowest success rate to opponents. Atlanta shockingly registered a pressure rate of 41.8% that ranks sixth in the world NFLand he did it by blitzing like crazy: Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich sent more rushes on an absurd 48.7% of opponent’s dropbacks, according to Tru Media.
These blitzes were also extremely effective: When they blitzed, the Falcons allowed just a 54.8% completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt, and they gave up explosive plays at half the league average rate.
In this game, the Falcons will face Mac Jones’ backup team in San Francisco. Jones has been effective filling in for Brock Purdy this season, completing 67.3% of his passes and averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and three interceptions in his four games.
However, he has been highly vulnerable to pressure, which is not surprising given his history. He’s eighth in the EPA per putback from a clean pocket, via Tru Media, and 31st (out of 34 qualifiers) when under pressure. Once again, the Falcons were subjected to some of the highest pressure in the league. Jones himself was pressured just 29.1% of the time, third-lowest in the NFL, because he was getting the ball out in an average of just 2.62 seconds.
If he can get the ball out before he has a chance to go home, he’ll likely find some success here. But Atlanta’s coverage unit was compact, which in turn played into that high pressure rate. If the Falcons can disturb the pocket, they have a chance to force Jones into a bad game.
And while the Falcons were stingy in the air, they were Extremely Vulnerable on the ground. They’re second (leading only the Cowboys) in opponents’ rushing success rate, via Tru Media, and have yielded 4.8 yards per carry. A lot of that had to do with yards before contact, which is unsurprising given the body types the Falcons have up front (lighter and faster rather than bigger and stronger). Opponents are averaging 1.89 yards before contact per attempt.
Unfortunately for the Niners, they have been extremely unsuccessful running the ball this season. Christian McCaffrey is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and has just one rushing score. His best game on the ground saw him average 4.2 yards against the Saints in Week 2. Fortunately for San Francisco, help is on the way. Kittle is the best blocking tight end in the NFL and a key part in making the team’s run game successful. If he’s healthy enough to play, he should be healthy enough to help start the run game here against a unit that’s very weak against the run.
prediction
The Falcons have some face-off advantages here, especially in the running game on offense. But their excellent defense has some potential areas that can be exploited, especially if you can get the ball out quickly and direct playmakers into open spaces. Few players do it better than Kyle Shanahan, and the combination of McCaffrey and Kittle operating in the middle of the field could make some things happen. If the Niners can limit Robinson’s explosive rush, I’d love for them to do so at home.
Pick: 49ers 23, Falcons 20